Prospects for peace in the north

Uganda's northern region, the scene of a bitter 18-year old civil war between government forces and the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) rebels is experiencing a flicker of hope. Dozens of rebels have recently surrendered to government forces, with an attendant decline in violence in the north over the past few weeks, according to relief agencies operating in the region. Many of the LRA officers who have surrendered are being taken by the military to different places in the region to encourage reconciliation and peace. During these "tours", they are using every opportunity to appeal to colleagues still in the bush to abandon the fight and come home. According to military statistics 519 former rebels, including 22 senior commanders, have surrendered since January, most of them over the past few weeks. The army says it has captured another 215 and killed some 800 others over the same period, while 1,768 former abductees, mainly children, have been rescued. REBELLION FIZZLING OUT The Uganda People's Defence Forces (UPDF) believe that the rebellion is fizzling out, mainly because the LRA has been "denied the opportunity to replenish its ranks through abductions", according to Maj Shaban Bantariza, the army spokesman. He concedes, however, that even if this trend continues, it will take time before peace is realised in the region and the internally displaced persons (IDPs), estimated at over 1.6 million, can go home and resume their normal lives. "We have denied [LRA leader] Joseph Kony the opportunity to replenish his ranks through abduction. We have killed many of his commanders and fighters, and for sure he is existing on borrowed time," Bantariza said, stressing that this was the result of the UPDF's operations. "The military option is succeeding. It has become a predominant actor in the peace process and the pacification of northern Uganda, because in the past two to three months there has been hardly a major act by the LRA and there has been relative peace in the region," he added. UN MONITORING EVENTS The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Activities (OCHA) in Gulu said it had taken note of the impact of the surrenders, but warned against complacency. "This calmness has not yet trickled down to change people's perceptions. We have witnessed an increase in the number of night commuters in Gulu for example," the head of the OCHA office in Gulu, Andrew Timpson, told IRIN. Many relief and church workers in the region concede that the recent surrenders are a step in the right direction and hope that more LRA fighters will eventually come out of the bush. But the humanitarian situation in the area is worse than ever, according to Pietro Galli, the emergency coordinator of the Italian relief agency, AVSI, in northern Uganda. The conflict in northern Uganda has been characterised by inexplicable cruelty. Its main victims have been child abductees subsequently forced to fight or abused sexually, while a whole generation of other children has been forced to grow up in squalid IDP camps. "The traumatic nightmare and tension of the people remain. We still deliver relief, using escorts, but the surrenders are a good sign and we hope more will come out," said Galli. "The humanitarian situation, however, has become more critical," he added. CHURCH LEADERS OPTIMISTIC The head of the Roman Catholic Church in northern Uganda, Archbishop John Baptist Odama, referred to the new trend as "a great thing" and expressed support for the move to have former LRA officers campaign to persuade others to follow their example. "Since the number of those surrendering increased, there has been general calm. It seems that there is a new sense suggesting that benefiting from the amnesty is the way to go. And we all need to praise the UPDF for treating those surrendering very well, including sparing the life of Kenneth Banya [a senior LRA commander captured recently], and this has helped in confidence building," he said in Gulu. Referring to a radio programme featuring rebel commanders who had surrendered two days earlier, he said: "This is a great achievement. It is a big breakthrough. Everybody should forgive, because this is an opportunity of mercy, and let mercy triumph." Church leaders still maintain, however, that the continuing application of force of arms cannot deliver the much-needed peace and solve the region's problems. They complain that the government has paid insufficient attention to dialogue, as many within its ranks regard talking peace with the rebels as conceding defeat. The Acholi Religious Leaders' Peace Initiative (ARLPI) insists that dialogue constitutes the most realistic and surest way towards achieving a lasting peace. This is not the first time that peace seems to have crept over the horizon in northern Uganda. In 1994, a government minister, Betty Bigombe, almost convinced the LRA to come to the negotiating table, and was about to clinch a deal with them. But this move collapsed when President Yoweri Museveni issued an ultimatum to the rebels to surrender, or face the might of his army. The LRA reacted by digging in, and 10 years later peace remains in abeyance. Another church leader and a member of ARLPI, Monsignor Matthew Odong, criticised the government for what he called indecisiveness. "The government seems indecisive on what to do about the crisis. One moment it's ready to talk peace and the next it's ready to wage war. War has not worked in 18 years; now peace must be given a chance," he said in a recently published interview. Commenting on the 1994 botched attempt on peace talks, Odongo said, "Now if President Museveni can recreate that original effort, we will achieve peace before the end of this year. It's a win-win situation for everyone: the government, the citizens and the LRA."