Tens of thousands could die of hunger and disease in Darfur

An estimated 100,000 people are at risk of dying from malnutrition and disease in Sudan's western region of Darfur, as a direct result of the ongoing conflict there, according to the International Crisis Group (ICG) think-tank. "In the best-case scenario, 'only' 100,000 people are expected to die in Darfur from disease and malnutrition in the coming months; sadly, there is little reason for even this desperate optimism," ICG said in an appeal entitled: "End the slaughter and starvation in western Sudan", launched on Sunday. The grim reality was that even if the April ceasefire between the government of Sudan and the region's two rebel groups was respected, 100,000 people would perish due to the "targeted destruction of water sites and food stores by government-aligned forces throughout the region", ICG continued. The numbers already killed by fighting, malnutrition and disease are unknown, but were estimated by the outgoing Humanitarian Coordinator for Sudan to be at least 10,000 by the end of March. ONGOING WAR Since the ceasefire signed between the government and the rebel Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) on 8 April, there have been numerous reports of violations reported by the UN and other sources, including fighting and attacks on civilians by Arab government-allied militias known as the Janjawid. (See www.unsudanig.org for latest UN updates from Darfur) There is currently no international monitoring mechanism in place. Vast swathes of fertile farmland have been burned and depopulated of their non-Arab inhabitants - who are accused of harbouring rebels - by the Janjawid since August 2003, according to Human Rights Watch (HRW). "With rare exceptions, the countryside is now emptied of its original Masalit and Fur inhabitants," said the watchdog in a campaign entitled "Help end ethnic cleansing in Darfur" launched on 7 May. Anything that could sustain life - food, livestock, wells, blankets and clothing - had been looted or destroyed, it added. "Villages have been torched, not randomly, but systematically - often not once, but twice." Most of the displaced, who number over one million, have been forced into urban areas, where they remain virtual prisoners, as they are vulnerable to attack if they leave the settlements, according to a US Agency for International Development (USAID) emergency fact sheet dated 14 May. Unable to return to their farms to cultivate, they are missing the annual planting season, which ends in late May or early June when the rains begin. The consequences of no harvest next November, plus the limited capacity of aid agencies to operate in Darfur, could be catastrophic, say humanitarian workers. Roger Winter, the USAID assistant director, predicted this month that once the rainy season begins, 30 percent of the affected population could die over the next nine months. The UN has increased its estimate of conflict-affected people in Darfur from 1.1 million in April to two million this month. Meanwhile, the Sudanese foreign minister, Mustafa Uthman Isma'il, reportedly said on Friday that the pro-government militias could not be disarmed so long as the rebels continued fighting. "Those who want us to interrupt the actions of the militias now must understand that this is not possible," he was quoted as saying by Agence France-Presse (AFP). "They forget that there is a rebellion going on and [the rebels] carry arms and threaten the tribes." The Sudanese government has repeatedly contested the allegations of ethnic cleansing and scorched-earth policy depicted in various high-level reports from the UN, HRW, Amnesty International, the ICG and others over recent weeks. Just last week, a statement issued on 12 May by the Sudanese foreign ministry said: "The government has reiterated its keenness to achieve a lasting solution to the problem of Darfur, as well as normalisation of the situation and maintaining stability there." THE POLITICS OF AID Since the conflict erupted in Darfur in February 2003, bureaucratic problems have led to humanitarian actors waiting for weeks and sometimes months just to enter the region. Three levels of bureaucracy have to be surmounted before staff can reach their projects, leading to weeks of delay, according to Roger Winter, the USAID assistant director: Firstly, NGO workers have to obtain visas to enter Sudan; secondly, they have to obtain travel permits, which are frequently delayed or denied; thirdly, aid workers need daily travel permits to leave the regional capitals to visit project sites. The government also "frequently impounds vehicles and holds them for months when they are urgently needed for emergency operations", he told the US Committee on International Relations on 6 May. The denial of access over many months had made NGOs fearful of speaking out, because they were afraid of losing access altogether, he added, as well as preventing them from building up their own capacity to respond effectively to the humanitarian crisis. At a press conference in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, on Sunday, Interior Minister Abd al-Rahim Husayn and Humanitarian Affairs Minister Ibrahim Mahmud Hamid announced the deployment of a new police force to the region, but added that fewer NGOS would be allowed to operate there. They accused some of the "hundreds of NGOs" operating in Darfur region of using "humanitarian operations as a cover for carrying out a hidden agenda" and supporting the rebellion. For this reason, "the authorities will be careful in permitting such NGOs to operate in Darfur," Hamid was quoted as saying by AFP. Just this week, the UN reported that a senior staff member from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs - whose role was to coordinate the aid response - had been deported from southern Darfur. "This is unacceptable treatment for UN staff," said a report. Making matters even worse, the limited aid that is available is often being turned away. The SLA has declared several times in recent weeks that it will refuse any aid delivered to areas under its control that originated in government territory, where most of the NGOs and UN agencies have their bases. It said it would deny the government any opportunity to use humanitarian relief for its own benefit, which included bringing troops, ammunition, spies, and propaganda into SLA areas, discrediting the SLA on the ground, or making the civilian populations reliant on the government. Ongoing Janjawid attacks have also made the IDPs too scared to accept any aid. IDPs' had consistently reported the dilemma they faced to UN officials, said a report on 16 May. "Whether to refuse the food and starve, or receive assistance and subject themselves to Janjawid predatory attacks." FORCIBLE RETURNS An increasing number of reports are being received of attempts to coerce IDPs in Darfur to return to their homes and farms. The UN reported that "government pressure for involuntary relocation and return resonates throughout field reports". On the one hand traditional elders were being pressured or persuaded into cooperation or else replaced, the UN said. "On the other hand, humanitarian assistance is manipulated to lure the population into relocation and return under the conditions of continued insecurity." The government's pilot return village in Habilah Karnavi was now populated with 65 people, attracted by the prospect of free food, it added. On three occasions, the authorities had reportedly gone to IDPs sites in Western Darfur to tell people that if they did not return to their homes, the international community would stop delivering aid, a source told IRIN. Nevertheless, people were refusing to move. The British ambassador visiting IDPs had received a uniform answer to the question he posed regarding return, the UN reported: They would return when the Janjawid were disarmed and when security was in place. A plan of return developed by local authorities in Western Darfur has now been abandoned. ACTION NEEDED IMMEDIATELY Human Rights groups and think-tanks are urging decisive action from both the UN and the US to halt the deaths, that may include force. "Whatever you want to call what's going on in Darfur, the time for forceful outside intervention is unmistakably approaching," said ICG in its appeal. As a first step, the Security Council must urgently pass a resolution that includes five points, according to ICG: first, it must condemn what has been happening and demand that it stop; second it must impose an arms embargo, insist that Khartoum disarm the Janjawid and demand respect for the humanitarian ceasefire; third the resolution must call for the safe return of the IDPs; fourth it should authorise a high-level team to investigate the war crimes and crimes against humanity; fifth it should warn Khartoum unambiguously that force may be used. "Despite being too late to stop the ethnic-cleansing campaign, the international community still has a chance to prevent a major famine from killing hundreds of thousands more Darfurians," warned John Prendergast, co-director of the ICG Africa programme, in a testimony this month to the US Committee on International Relations. The US Committee for Refugees said last week that the US government, in particular, must take action on Darfur. "Otherwise hundreds of thousands of innocent men, women and children may die, and President Bush may be found wanting in the eyes of history for failing to rise to the awful spectre of this genocide in the making," said Lavinia Lemon, its executive director. "His leadership and political will are needed now," she stressed.