Food insecurity expected to drop in April, May

The number of food-insecure people in Tanzania is expected to drop in April from 3.5 million to 1.8 million, the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS Net), a USAID-funded activity, reported. In the report published on Wednesday, citing a rapid vulnerability assessment in February by Tanzania's Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, FEWS Net said the figure was expected to drop to 874,000 in May "as household food supplies improve with the expected "msimu" harvest in unimodal rainfall areas". FEWS said while it was too late to meet the needs in March for the 3.5 million food-insecure people, recent government maize imports could help meet those for April and May. However, FEWS said any operational plan needed to include contingencies for "scaling up quickly" should the "masika" (March-June) rains do poorly in bimodal rainfall areas. A June/July 2003 rapid vulnerability assessment, conducted by the multi-agency Food Security Information Team (FSIT), found that up to two million people would require 77,490 mt of food aid between October 2003 and March 2004, "after which food security was expected to improve", FEWS said. It said that the Ministry of Agriculture's assessment covered 72 districts, rather than 47 in the prior FSIT assessment, which was another factor accounting for the "steep increase" in the number of people requiring food aid. "Households will continue to face hardships until the msimu harvest in May in unimodal rainfall areas and much longer in bimodal areas where the masika harvest is not expected until June-September," FEWS Net reported. It said the expected improvements in April and May would occur only if official imports of 10,000 mt of maize from Kenya were distributed immediately and planned additional imports of 22,000 mt were bought, shipped and distributed urgently, "which is doubtful in view of time constraints". So, it added, a break in the food aid pipeline was likely in April (11,738 mt) although a potential surplus of 11,508 mt was expected in May when food needs would be declining. "The [Tanzania] national Strategic Grain Reserve, already low, would be exhausted if it had to meet the 32,460 mt deficit in March and April," FEWS NET said. [For the Fews Monthly report on Tanzania see www.fews.net]