Focus on UN Special Envoy Lloyd Axworthy's mission

As Canadian former Foreign Minister Lloyd Axworthy takes up his post as UN special envoy, the deadlock between Ethiopia and Eritrea shows no sign of crumbling. The seasoned diplomat, who is expected to fly into the region on 18 February, has been selected by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan to help overcome the impasse. Inasmuch as the task of successfully driving forward the peace process has so far eluded the international community and the UN peacekeeping force, few expect instant results from his appointment. "I would expect it will take at least six months before we see anything concrete," said one senior diplomat in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, who is close to the peace process. Axworthy is first expected to visit Addis Ababa for three days to meet Prime Minister Meles Zenawi before travelling to the Eritrean capital, Asmara, to meet President Isayas Afeworki. "As long as he comes prepared to listen to both sides and comes with no baggage, his mission could be a great success," the diplomat said. "His presence is certainly needed." Local incidents, such as cattle rustling are continuing in the border area. No progress has been made in restoring direct flights between the two capitals despite three years of trying. Postal and telephone links remain interrupted despite the close relations the countries shared before their war. And, most importantly - and of increasing concern among the international community - is the lack of political dialogue at any level. The only bilateral talks take place during the meetings held once every six weeks of the UN-hosted Military Coordination Committee, but these exchanges are limited to technical military matters. Diplomats in Addis Ababa say any attempt at getting the two leaders to meet is unlikely to bear fruit. NEED FOR ATMOSPHERE OF MUTUAL TRUST Although Axworthy, 63, has not yet arrived in the region, he is acutely aware of the need to create a level of trust sufficiently conducive to dialogue. "There is not that kind of environment right now," Axworthy said in a recent interview with IRIN, held while he was still waiting for his appointment to be made official. Axworthy also tried to play down concerns expressed by the Eritrean government over suspected attempts to impose changes to the border ruling. "There is no sense that there is going to be a shift or a major operation or that we are going to get rid of the [2000] Algiers Accord agreements," Axworthy said. However, despite his reassurances, Eritrea remains deeply suspicious and strongly opposed to any "new mechanism" to overcome the deadlock. It says the independent boundary commission has made a "final and binding" ruling and that the decision should be implemented in full. "Thus, there cannot be any issue of detailed implementation of demarcation to be discussed by special envoys or mediators," Isayas said in a speech given in early February. As yet there are few indications of what exactly Axworthy’s role will entail. But there is general agreement among observers that he represents the carrot to be offered before the stick is used. Also unclear is what his relationship will be with the UN peacekeepers, whose head, the UN secretary-general’s special representative (SRSG), Legwaila Joseph Legwaila, has spent three years in pursuit of a breakthrough. "Clearly there will be a close relationship, an all-informed relationship between the work of the special envoy and the work of the SRSG," the UN mission's military commander, Maj-Gen Robert Gordon said. Axworthy, best known for his role in pushing through a global treaty to ban antipersonnel mines, will be based in New York, and again, like Legwaila, will use shuttle diplomacy, alternately travelling to both capitals to try and broker progress. PRESSURE MOUNTING FOR BREAKTHROUGH His appointment also comes as the six-month mandate of the UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE), comes up for renewal in mid-March by the 15-member UN Security Council. Sources close to the peace process say the international community is reluctant to scale down the 4,200-strong UNMEE force for fear of sending the wrong message to the two countries. Moreover, UNMEE, which reportedly costs the international community US $180 million a year, insists that it has received no warning signs that it could be downsized. However, there are such indications. One senior diplomat said the international community was considering downsizing UNMEE at the time of the next mandate renewal as the focus shifted to Axworthy. "UNMEE are a short-term, medium-term solution. Axworthy is the long-term permanent solution," the diplomat told IRIN. "Discussions are under way on whether UNMEE’s size could come down by about a third." German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said during a visit to Ethiopia in January that the international community would not wait "until kingdom come" for the demarcation of the border. Although he stressed that the international community could not "set time limits", there are nonetheless clear signs that pressure is mounting for palpable indications of a breakthrough. Chris Mullin, the UK’s foreign minister for Africa, described the millions of being dollars being poured into the peacekeeping mission as "a waste" in the context of the desperate poverty afflicting the two desperately poor countries. "There are a lot of better things you can do with US $180 million in a poor country like this [Ethiopia] or in Eritrea, and so that cannot go on indefinitely... Something has got to move," he warned. Mullin added that the international community and the guarantors of the peace deal, namely the US, EU and African Union were "singing from the same hymn sheet". Border demarcation has already been delayed three times, the last being when the boundary commission, which is based in The Hague, in October announced the suspension of its work, saying it was unable to effectively proceed under the prevailing climate. So, diplomats say, the focus is again gravitating towards a piecemeal demarcation where the agreed territories can be marked out, but placing disputed areas on the back-burner. This move is opposed by Eritrea. Whereas both countries have committed themselves to peace, neither is willing to take a step towards a lasting solution, they added. Ethiopia refuses to accept the boundary ruling and Eritrea refuses to engage in dialogue. MISSION A WATERSHED Now Ethiopia is being urged to make the first move by "accepting in principle" the ruling of the boundary commission. Ethiopia says its accepts 85 percent of the ruling. But after branding other elements of the 136-page decision as "illegal, wrong and unjust" it is difficult to conceive how the government could be persuaded to accept the contested 15 percent that includes the territories of Badme and Irob. If it accepts the ruling in principle, say diplomats, then it could regain some of the moral high ground held by Eritrea, which could then be urged to engage in "broad-based" talks with its former foe. This might be a starting point for Axworthy. However, Eritrea has given no indication that even if Ethiopia takes this step that Asmara would be prepared to enter talks. But, diplomats note, with cautious optimism, that Isayas has agreed to meet the special envoy when he arrives in the region. If, however, Axworthy fails to broker movement, says the diplomatic community, then it will be back to the drawing board. "If that [Axworthy’s mission] fails, we shall have to think carefully about what to do next," Mullin noted.