Presidential election could go to second round

Support for opposition candidate Mohamed Khouna Ould Haidalla is growing in the campaign for Mauritania's 7 November presidential election. His unexpected popularity has prompted aides of President Maaouiya Ould Sid'Ahmed Taya, to admit privately that the incumbent head of state may get less than 50 percent of the vote and be forced into a second round-run off two weeks later. Ould Haidalla, 63, is a former army colonel, who was president from 1980 until 1984. He is now seeking to replace though the ballot box the man who overthrew him in a military coup 19 years ago. Ould Taya, who is also 63, has ruled this desert country of 2.5 million people with an iron hand, changing his political allegiance from Saddam Hussein's Baghdad to George Bush's Washington as time went on. But his grip on power was shaken by a bloody coup attempt in June and unexpectedly large crowds have been turning up at Ould Haidalla's rallies throughout the country to cheer his calls for "alternation" after two decades of one-man rule by Ould Taya. An estimated 10,000 people turned up for Ould Haidalla's first campaign rally in the capital Nouakchott on 22 October and larger than expected crowds of supporters, have gathered to hear him speak at other meetings in the interior. Ould Taya has yet to hold a rally in the capital, and none of the other five opposition presidential candidates have succeeded in drawing such large numbers as Ould Haidalla. Campaign observers in Mauritania said the key factor in Ould Taya's favour was wide his support base. This ranges from Islamic radicals, to liberal reformers and former supporters of Ould Taya. And as a former military head of state, Ould Haidalla commands the respect of influential Mauritania's army. The military have played a key role in the political life of this former French colony ever since its first president Moktar Ould Daddah, was overthrown in a 1978 coup. Mauritania's fragmented opposition has accused Ould Taya of rigging previous elections in his favour. However, this time round, new procedures will make it more difficult to rig the poll. New voter cards that are more difficult to falsify have been issued, transparent ballot boxes will be used that are more difficult to stuff discreetly and the entire roll of 1.1 million voters has been published on the internet. The government has resisted opposition calls for foreign observers to monitor the poll, but it recently allowed in a team from the National Democratic Institute in the United States. The government has so far rejected opposition demands for European Union monitors to be allowed in. If no candidate achieves more than 50 percent of the votes cast in the first round of the election, a second round runoff will be held between the two front runners on 27 November. The man who eventually does win a mandate to rule this sparsely populated Islamic state for the next six years faces the bonus of an imminent oil boom to boost government finances. Australia's Woodside Petroleum has been encouraged by strong flows of light oil from its Chinguetti offshore exploration well. The Financial Times in London and the AP Dow Jones financial news service both reported earlier this week that Woodside and its partners would confirm plans to invest US $400 million in developing the find by the end of this year. The Financial Times reported that Chinguetti was expected to come on stream in 2005 or 2006 producing 50,000 to 75,000 barrels per day. This would provide the Mauritanian government with additional income of at least $100 million a year by 2008, it added. Further offshore exploration drilling by Woodside and the Scottish oil company Dana is planned in the coming months, raising hopes that Mauritania may soon join other poor African nations such as Chad and Sao Tome and Principe, which have suddenly struck it big in oil.