Warning of another food deficit

Ethiopia is facing another massive food shortfall in the coming year, according to the US government's Famine Early Warning System (FEWS). The grim assessment comes after a technical analysis of desperately needed rains for the country's main harvest along with an estimated population growth. “A coarse food balance shows that about 13 million people would meet none of their food needs at all in 2003-04, assuming equitable distribution,” FEWS said. “In reality, no-one will completely go without, but many impoverished Ethiopians without adequate access to food will face debilitating hunger and malnutrition, as seen in the high rate of stunting in children and increased susceptibility to disease. “The implications of these rainfall and crop production trends is that projected food shortages in Ethiopia may soon pass beyond chronic into tragic, exceeding the ability of food aid to make up the difference,” the report said. “While the Meher [main harvest] cereals and pulses production forecast is typical of recent production figures, it is likely to be insufficient to prevent food shortages in 2003, 2004 unless commercial and food aid imports are substantially above recent amounts,” it said. It also revealed that rainfall levels have gradually been failing by as much as 23 millimetres a year in the last 30 years, aggravating the situation. The country is already reeling from a major drought which has left some 12.6 million in need of food aid – one in five of the population – at a cost of around US $800 million. “Population growth plays a significant role in these food shortage projections,” the report added. “The increasing population simply aggravates this already substantial crop production deficit.”