Feature - Peace process crumbling in north

Northern Uganda’s peace process looks to be on its last legs. Talks have all but collapsed between Uganda’s government and the troublesome rebel Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), as both sides take to the bush to resume full hostilities. But have they really blown their last chance for peace? It is eight months since the Ugandan government and LRA first decided to talk to each other. For 16 years, all they had ever exchanged was gunfire. Then on 14 July 2002, the rebels held a landmark seven-hour meeting with representatives of the local Acholi Religious Leaders’ Peace Initiative (ARLPI). They said they wanted to open negotiations with the government – negotiations which could finally end Uganda’s longest, bloodiest civil conflict to date. Present were Vincent Otti, Sam Kolo and Caesar Acellam, three of the LRA’s most senior members. “We had another meeting on the 21st [July],” explains Father Carlos Rodriguez, a chief negotiator who has been in contact with the LRA almost since the insurgency began. "We went back, we told the president that we have already met them, that they have these demands, and so on," he told IRIN. "And he said we should try and meet them again. This was a real breakthrough. It was the first time in my memory that the government had shown a willingness to talk.”  

Breakdown

Eight months down the line, progress has been slow. The LRA is still pursuing relentless attacks on villages in troubled northern districts, with regular killings, lootings and child abductions (60 from Lira in one evening last week). And now the government, in frustration with what it sees as a lack of sincerity on the part of the LRA, has formally ended a ceasefire in Lapul subcountry, Pader district, declared last month so that the rebels could meet the Presidential Peace Team. The Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) now have orders to attack the LRA wherever they find them. According to government sources, this is because the LRA are using the ceasefire as a safe haven in which to regroup for further attacks. First Deputy Prime Minister Salim Saleh, who heads the Presidential Peace Team told IRIN the LRA were "not genuine" about peace talks. "Until four days ago, I was hoping against hope, but not any more," he said. "They are just buying time to reorganise themselves. Recently they’ve been under a lot of pressure. They’ve been dislodged from Sudan, so they’ve got no base.” “My current conclusion is that this is just a charade to give them time to relax before the next offensive,” he added.

Mistrust

The issue of trust is one that has been repeatedly raised by mediators. According to them, it is endemic on both sides. Because of their mistrust, the government thinks the LRA is just using the peace talks as a breathing space.

Meanwhile, the LRA are reported to be terrified that the peace talks are just a cover for military operations against them. And not without reason. Too often peace meetings in agreed spots have coincided with a sudden UPDF attack. “Some of our efforts have definitely been spoilt by the army,” says Father Carlos. The most recent of such incidents was at the beginning of March, after the LRA declared a unilateral ceasefire. Father Carlos recounts the event: “After the LRA declared a ceasefire we got a call from one of their commanders on the radio. They said come on the 4th [March] and bring government officials. One even wanted his mother. The meeting was in the bush near Padula, Pader District. But when we got to Acholi Pii [north Pader] the 5th division commander refused to stop operations, saying he didn’t have orders to stop. They then proceeded to bomb the area relentlessly for four days.” “It cannot be proved that what happened was a deliberate trap, but the temptation will always be there to use peace talks to contain the rebels and then pound them,” he noted. But Salim Saleh defends the army on this, pointing out that a ceasefire had not yet been agreed. “The 5th division commander was right. The president had given no orders to stop operations. [LRA leader Joseph] Kony declared it on the 1st, but it takes more than that to cement a ceasefire. The president had barely received the news.” He also points out that the rebels themselves did not honour their own ceasefire. “On that very day they launched an attack and killed some of our soldiers,” he said. Nevertheless, incidents like the above have led the LRA to treat every interaction with the government, mediated or not, with deep suspicion. Acholiland senior cultural leader David Achana says: “The LRA told me last week they now feel that the meetings are just a trap.”

Control

Another question is whether the rebel commanders meeting for talks are really the ones in control. Or, for that matter, whether anyone is, says Father Carlos. “Is it a group with a serious central command or has it splintered into a loose collection of warlords, no-one in control?," he asks. "Sometimes it seems that way. I get the impression that if the power of the LRA was really in the hands of the people we have been meeting, we would have solved this by now.” Government officials disagree, saying there is no question that the LRA is anything other than an organised group. “The LRA is tightly controlled," says Salim Saleh. "If Kony wanted to, he could stop tomorrow.” No-one really knows what Kony wants. “It is the biggest puzzle of this war”, says Lam Kosmos, coordinator of the ARLPI. “We cannot determine Kony’s seriousness about peace talks because no-one has met him. We just get reports from his second in command that ‘we are working on it’."

Business

Other suggested reasons for the failure of talks are still open to debate. A common accusation is that the war is a lucrative business, which both sides are perpetuating, although Kosmos dismisses this. “That is just a stereotype,” he says. “It is impossible to verify that anyone is deliberately prolonging the war, for money or any other reason.” But if not greed, then there might just be one other deadly sin holding back negotiations - pride. “The collapse in talks has just allowed the hardliners to harden further," Salim Saleh told IRIN. "This is not about personal gain, but pride, with both the LRA and the UPDF. There are elements in both that will only be happy with a decisive victory.”