Fresh drought concerns

Concern is mounting in Namibia over continued low rainfall and its impact on the country's subsistence farmers and agro-industry. "In all the regions the rainfall has been below average and there seems to be a drought looming. According to the weather bureau, the forecast is not promising for the next season," Sakkie Coetzee, executive manager of the Namibia Agriculture Union told IRIN on Monday. The government responded to a similar drought last year by announcing it would provide relief food to about 345,000 people faced by critical food shortages. "We are expecting to run into difficulties," Coetzee said of the country's commercial farmers. "Due to decreased grazing areas, farmers are selling off their excess animals as 'pressure marketing' and we expect this to increase." He said although there had been some "patchy" rain throughout the country, most areas had not received enough. In the south and southeast of the country commercial farmers were worst hit, whereas in the north communal farmers were affected. Christof Brock, chief executive officer of the Namibian Agronomics Board, said the rain-fed crops in the south and southeast were "pathetic" and the mahangu, or pearl millet, crop had recently taken a turn for the worse - the second bad year for mahangu. "Until two weeks ago the mahangu looked as though it might be above average but now it is slightly below. As the best crop is around 115,000 mt and the worst is 30,000 mt - we're estimating mahangu to be at around 60,000 mt this year. The country's irrigated maize appeared to be faring well, he said, and, coupled with farmers' reported plans to plant maize crops twice in succession, irrigated maize supplies were not expected to drop. However, he said the communal maize areas, mainly in the northeastern Caprivi region, were devastated for the second year in a row due to the lack of rainfall. "People in the Caprivi are in dire straits again," he said. Brock said although shortfalls were expected, and were normal for Namibia's dry conditions, these were traditionally filled by private importers who had long-standing contracts with South African companies. "But this does not mean that individual households won't be affected. The fear is not whether there will be enough on the shelves, but will people who rely on their grain stores have enough and, if not, will they have enough money to buy it at supermarket prices?" Brock asked. However, he said the greatest impact of the drought would be felt by livestock farmers, who make up 90 percent of the agricultural sector and would not have any grazing for their animals. Roger Paskin, a manager at the Namibia Meat Board agreed. He said satellite images and farmers' reports indicate a problem with grazing lands. "We had had 50 percent less rainfall than usual and that is bad in a country that is already dry. It affects everybody and the communal farmers take the knock. During such times farmers sell their livestock, but these sales are coinciding with falling international prices, he noted. "Sheep and cattle exports bring in 25 percent of the country's foreign exchange so it is very worrying," he said. During similar difficulties last year, the government bought communal farmers' cattle at better prices than falling market rates. "We're waiting to see if that will happen again this year," Paskin said. The Namibian government will carry out its second assessment of the situation in May before deciding on what action to take, a government official told IRIN.