Divisions allow Mugabe to win PR battle: ICG

Divisions within the international community over its approach to Zimbabwe has allowed President Robert Mugabe to win the public relations and political battle, the latest International Crisis Group (ICG) report said. It is also depriving the international community of a chance to influence what increasingly appears to be the onset of a serious succession battle within Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF. Following extensive research on the latest developments in the country, the Brussels-based group said that while the crisis in Zimbabwe deepened, the international response had become more divided. In the Commonwealth, leading members South Africa and Nigeria were arguing "against all the evidence" that Zimbabwe's suspension should be lifted because the situation had improved. The relevant regional and continental international organisations, the Southern African Development Community and the African Union (AU) respectively, had yet to engage meaningfully. And the European Union (EU) is "rent by divisions" after France's invitation to Mugabe to participate in a recent pan-African summit in Paris. The report said the US remained a weak actor, able to implement a promised asset freeze only after nearly a year's delay because of internal mid-level policy disagreements. "The international response has been divided, overstated, under-implemented, and largely ineffectual. Since the ICG's last report [in October 2002], divisions have widened, not just between Africa and the West, but also increasingly within the West. "The issue of Zimbabwe is dividing international organisations and creating embarrassing public debates over trivial issues such as participation in a cricket championship, that deflect attention from the serious erosion occurring within the country," the report noted. Areas of concern were severe food shortages, rampant inflation, fuel shortages, continued land seizures, extremely low harvest predictions and threats to the judiciary and the media. Warning of a "potential state collapse", the ICG said that one new element that suggests positive change may be possible involves reports that began to surface in January 2003 that senior ZANU-PF officials were seriously exploring possible retirement for Mugabe. The ICG suggested that much of the desire for change was driven by the effects the economic crisis was having on high-ranking officials' personal interests as well as a desire to lure back donor assistance and restore international credibility. According to the reports, opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai was sounded out by representatives of the Speaker of Parliament Emmerson Mnangagwa and armed forces chief General Vitalis Zvinavashe on the possibility of joining a transitionary authority if Mugabe retired. The alleged deal involved certain ZANU-PF officials receiving immunity from prosecution for human rights abuses. Tsvangirai reportedly rejected this offer saying Zimbabwe would need to return to democracy through a process that was transparent and accountable, not a "backroom deal" that presupposed Mnangagwa as the new president. The revelations surrounding the meetings brought into the open long suspected divisions with the ruling party, the report said. It detailed two camps of contenders and a possible third "spoiler" camp involved in the power struggle. Recent statements from Mugabe - like "there are those that seek to divide us from within" - indicate that "some things have gone on behind his back", the report noted. It warned that unless an acceptable process materialised, one of the factions "might bolt from ZANU-PF, form its own party and try to attract others as the Rainbow Coalition did in Kenya". It added that some of the less radical war veterans were also organising and could provide another point of independent opposition to ZANU-PF over the coming months. The ICG said that South Africa was active behind the scenes in promoting a succession plan, but it appeared to prefer a "quiet deal that would be arranged within and primarily by ZANU-PF with a relatively minimal role for the opposition." Reducing international pressure on ZANU-PF now would be a great mistake and would only lower the chance of peaceful or positive change, the report said. Recommendations put forward include formalising all informal contacts into one mediation channel fully backed by the region and broader international community. Negotiations between ZANU-PF and the MDC should be restarted and an AU initiative should be constructed to broker a transitional administration that involves the opposition and civil society, restores the rule of law and prepares the ground for early elections. Part of this would have to be an exit strategy for Mugabe and some of his close advisors. The initiative should involve countries such as Ghana, Senegal or Kenya who have undergone a recent transition of power for a liberation-era party to the opposition. For these measures to work, there was a need for increased pressure from outside Africa on ZANU-PF and its commercial supporters, and increased citizen pressure from with Zimbabwe, the report said. It also recommended that the government of Zimbabwe stop politicising food aid delivery though the parastatal Grain Marketing Board and called on UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and WFP head James Morris to authorise a UN monitoring mission to ensure the distribution of food in Zimbabwe. The full report