IRIN Focus on impact of Khatami’s win on eastern neighbours

Mohammad Khatami, 57, looks set to enter his second term as Iran’s president with a huge majority. His agenda is straightforward: to liberalise Iran and make the country more Western-friendly. Political analysts in Pakistan maintain that the regional implications will be positive. Professor Rifaat Hussein, director of Defence and Strategic Studies at Quaid-I-Azim University in Islamabad, told IRIN that Khatami was an open-minded reformist. “He doesn’t believe in imitation. But he does believe in borrowing the best from the West.” Some analysts claim his hands are tied by Iran’s hierarchy of power, in which he must defer to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamene’i, who controls the police, the armed forces and the judiciary. The Supreme Leader can also veto overly liberal policies put forward by the president. However, Khatami has a broad support base of young people and women, and it is they who will decide the size of Khatami’s majority: 14 million of the 43 million Iranians eligible to vote are between the ages of 16 and 25. According to a report in the ‘Los Angeles Times’ on Thursday, unemployment stands at 16 per cent, one job exists for every 23 university graduates, inflation stands at 13 percent, and 35 percent of urban households live in poverty. Iranians are restless for change. Khatami is sympathetic: “Those who will not listen to the voice of our youth will disappear,” he said at a closing rally on Thursday. Iranian women are particularly impressed by his decision to appoint a woman as environment minister and his willingness to reform. In his first term of government, Khatami introduced a law making it easier for women to get custody of their children. He has also tried to provide better schools for girls, and hospitals for women. His next term as president will be even more revolutionary, predicts Hussein. Universities will open up more of their departments to young women. American-style positive discrimination will be implemented to attract female candidates to top jobs. “Khatami wants to bring women into the political spheres. He is also supportive of women in the arts,” he said. It will also be dynamic. Khatami has vowed not to give in to hardline conservatives. He wanted to set the pace for change, he told a Tehran news conference on Tuesday. Ignoring public demands for greater freedoms would only “lead to an explosion”. His words have reverberated through government circles in neighbouring Pakistan and Afghanistan, both of whom fear “explosions” of the sort Khatami has warned of. “There are factions within Pakistan who are also asserting themselves in the name of democracy,” said Mirza Aslam Deg, leader of Pakistan’s Awami Quitat party. “If these factions are ignored, violent change could result.” But on the whole, a victory for Khatami could have positive implications for the region. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan could learn from the culture of moderation, stability and dialogue, which characterises Iranian politics, said Deg. Khatami’s influence is already perceptible in western Afghanistan, where there is trade and movement across the region, as well as a shared religion. “The non-Pakhtun Muslims of Afghanistan are receptive to Khatami and his ideas,” he said. The Khatami approach may serve as an alternative model for the Taliban. “Khatami is a pragmatist,” maintained Professor Hussein. “He realises that the Taliban are here to stay and he wants relations with them.” Women in Afghanistan may be the first to benefit from Khatami’s second term, he said. “Khatami is open-minded about women. If he keeps up a dialogue with the Taliban, some of his policies may rub off.” Pakistan could also benefit from Khatami’s second term: “He wants to work with Pakistan to find a solution to the problems in Afghanistan,” Hussein said. But at the end of the day, Khatami only has Iran’s interests at heart: “Khatami wants Iran to be integrated into the Global Village. He wants Iran to get on-line, he wants Iran to be part of the world economy. His buzzwords are progress, reform and integration,” the professor said. “Pakistan should take note of Khatami’s brand of nationalism, Ghulam Sarwar, a political commentator in Islamabad, told IRIN. “The Iranians know about the importance of accommodating different beliefs and religions. As a consequence, they enjoy relative harmony. Here in Pakistan, we have small religious organisations that prefer to work in their own interests. We need to follow the example of the Iranian people and learn how to listen to each other.”