Poor rainfall could see steep decline in cereal production

Poor rainfall could see cereal production in Zambia's Southern region decline by at least 60 percent in comparison with the 2000 harvest, the latest Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) report said. "Given that households in these areas are living with the knock-on effects from at least two consecutive bad years, a break in the season this year will have even more serious consequences than normal," the report said. Like many other Southern African countries, rainfall in Zambia has been sparse during the crucial planting season with very few areas receiving adequate rains for seed germination. Earlier in December, the Southern African Development Community issued a drought warning for the region amid concerns over a moderate El Nino, and cautioned that late planting meant subsistence farmers would have to endure an extra month of food shortages before harvesting their crops. Almost three million people in Zambia are already dependent on food aid following two consecutive droughts. The latest UN Regional Inter-Agency Coordination Support Office report on the region-wide food crisis said nutrition surveillance in Zambia showed a slow but steady increase in the proportion of children with acute malnutrition. FEWS NET said Zambia was also experiencing seed shortages for various crops. The government's "Fertiliser Support Programme" was expected to deliver 48,000 mt of subsidised fertiliser to 120,000 smallholder farmers. But some farmers complained that even with the 50 percent subsidy, fertiliser was still unaffordable for them. The government hoped the programme would increase total production by between 300,000 and 350,000 mt, but FEWS NET believed this was too ambitious a target. The food situation in the southern part of the country, including Southern, Eastern, and parts of Western and Central provinces was unsatisfactory and food assistance was still required, FEWS NET said. As prices rise and finally peak in January and February, the height of the growing season, fewer people would be able to afford to buy food and more people would need food aid until March. "The implications of not providing this food aid are profound. This is a critical time of year for people, since they need even more energy than usual to plant," the report said. The key problems were insufficient funding to import the required amount of food, and being unable to reach needy communities due to the bad state of the roads. The government's rejection of genetically modified (GM) food increased the need to import extra stock for January and February. In addition, a promised 300,000 mt of maize the government bought had not arrived in time to be in place for the end of December when stocks were expected to run out. The UN World Food Programme (WFP) said it was concerned about the number of warnings on poor planting and a lack of germination and said that by April 2003 the situation would be "quite serious". "We have enough food this [coming] month [January] but we are working from month to month and need more resources," WFP spokeswoman Jennifer Abrahamson said. "In the upcoming weeks we will help move 26,000 mt of food from the government of Zambia... and we are working round the clock to replace the GM stocks, but we are under-resourced," Abrahamson said.