Truce agreement signed at Eldoret conference

After days of delay and disagreement at the Somali peace talks, Somalia's various political factions and the Transitional National Government (TNG) signed a temporary ceasefire on 27 October. The groups, meeting in the western Kenyan town of Eldoret, agreed to suspend all hostilities for the duration of the Somali national reconciliation conference, a source close to the talks told IRIN. The talks, sponsored by the regional Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), began on 15 October and are likely to continue for several months. Under the agreement, in addition to the ceasefire, Somalis committed themselves to abide by the final outcome of the conference, to set up an all-inclusive federal system of government, to combat terrorism and to enhance the safety of aid workers in the country. Participants believe the accord will succeed if the international community is committed to its implementation. "It will work if the various factions believe that this time the international community is serious about the peace process," Abdikarim Ahmad Ali, a minister in the TNG, told IRIN. He said if the political groups saw a real commitment to implementing the agreement "then it will hold". "Otherwise it will be like the many agreements signed over the last 12 years," he cautioned. Mogadishu-based faction leader Muhammad Qanyare Afrah agreed. "If the international community is ready to take part and get involved in the implementation, the agreement will succeed," he told IRIN. "At the end of it they [international community] have to be prepared to commit troops to disarm all of us." Qanyare said previous agreements had failed because there was no such commitment, "The fact that the United States and the European Union are signatories to this agreement gives us hope that this time things are different," he added. A regional analyst told IRIN that even though the agreement was "a very positive step", it was only "a first step". He warned that part of the deal, especially the ceasefire, could come under pressure. This section of the agreement was likely to be tested in the south-central town of Baidoa, which has been the scene of fierce fighting between rival factions of the Rahanweyn Resistance Army controlling much of the Bay and Bakol regions, he said. "There must be a serious monitoring and enforcement mechanism in place if this [agreement] is to succeed," he pointed out. Another expert, however, told IRIN that the reason for leaving open any specific monitoring and enforcement mechanism was "to call on the international community to support the peace process and on the Somali people to implement this agreement".