Delay on substantive dialogue “a risky strategy”

Sassou-Nguesso’s approach of establishing peace on his own terms could prove a risky strategy, “as the opposition groups are far from being definitely defeated or neutralised”, and could be tempted to break the ceasefire to remind the government of this “if they feel that their concerns are not being adequately addressed,” the EIU’s briefing paper stated. In the absence of progress on political issues, it was possible that militia soldiers could resort to opportunistic banditry or that the militias would launch sporadic guerrilla activity, “and this would be enormously disruptive to transportation and reconstruction.” Although a return to full-scale conflict was unlikely while the government - backed by Angolan forces - held the upper hand militarily, low-level insecurity was likely to persist well into next year, the EIU concluded.