Food gap not closing fast enough

Progress has been slow in closing the food gap in Southern Africa, especially in Zimbabwe the worst affected country in the region. In its latest food security update the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET), warned that the gap in maize availability in Zimbabwe, estimated at 1.4 million mt last month for 2002/03 consumption, has been "very slow" in closing. "As of 19 June, only nine percent of the maize deficit at the beginning of the current consumption year had been imported," the agency said in its report released on Sunday. "A total of nearly 5.6 million people are considered food insecure during the current consumption year (April 2002-March 2003). Of these, almost 3.7 million people are in the communal sector, another 489,000 are commercial farm workers, and 850,000 people are in urban areas. "The food insecure population will require about 849,000 mt of food aid maize and 815,000 mt needs to be provided on the market for those with the purchasing power to buy," FEWS NET said. If households had no recourse to subsidised maize and had to pay the full-value import price of about Zim $76 per kg, "household income sources would be further stretched, increasing food aid requirements from 849,000 mt to 910,000 mt and the number of people requiring food aid from 5.5 million to 5.8 million". Wheat stocks were estimated to have dropped to 85,000 mt as of mid-June and were projected to be depleted by the end of August, more than a wmonth before the October harvest. Winter maize was expected to inject about 8,400 mt to 9,500 mt of grain onto the market in August and September. Wheat yields are expected to result in production of about 200,000 mt to 230,000 mt in October. "Persistent shortages of basic foodstuffs, such as maize meal and maize grain, sugar, milk, and cooking oil, have continued to fuel parallel market prices of these commodities well above the controlled price," FEWS NET said. While crops have suffered, the condition of grazing livestock continued to be good throughout the country. The FEWS NET report said livestock in drought-affected areas, such as parts of Buhera and Beitbridge districts, were being moved to nearby areas with adequate grazing and that water for livestock was generally available. Tobacco marketing was in full swing, by 17 June sales of a certain tobacco type had earned the country about US $27.2 million of much-needed foreign currency. Income from the 200,000 mt cotton harvest would contribute significantly toward food purchases in the rural areas, the agency said. In Malawi, planting of winter crops was going on in areas with residual moisture or irrigation facilities. The Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation released its final crop production estimates for the 2001/02 production year (October-September) on 20 June. Maize production dropped slightly (one percent) from the second round estimate and six percent from last year to 1.6 million mt. "The drop in maize production from the level last year, a below-average year, means that the food security problems this season will be worse if appropriate actions are not taken ... Many households overstretched their coping mechanisms last year, reducing their resilience and increasing their vulnerability in the face of continued food shortages," the agency said. Malawi's National Food Reserve Agency only received 136,000 mt of the 150,000 mt of maize ordered from South Africa. The difference was "due to rising maize prices after the contract was signed". Local market maize prices continued to drop between April and May due to improved household supplies as a result of the current harvest. More than three million need food aid in Malawi. While in Mozambique nearly half a million people in 43 districts need food aid, "mainly as a result of the cyclical natural disasters (cyclones, floods, and drought)". Maize production was up five percent in that country. "A multi-disciplinary Vulnerability Assessment Group (composed of government agencies, the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), WFP, FEWS NET, and NGOs) will carry out food security assessments in districts characterised by moderate to high food vulnerability to determine the severity and implications of current food shortages at the household level. The further assessments will identify and recommend appropriate targeting and monitoring mechanisms to ensure that food aid gets to those who require it the most," FEWS NET said. Zambia's situation was very different to that of Mozambique, maize production dropped by 24 percent from the previous season. A WFP/FAO assessment in Zambia earlier this year established that 174,000 mt of relief food would be required to assist a population of 2.3 million in need of emergency food. However, "despite government having sufficient information to base maize import plans on, decisions on modalities for maize imports are not being made fast enough to avoid a repeat of last season's critical maize meal shortage". "Maize and maize meal prices have generally been falling since March in many districts of the country as is expected at this time of the year. However, some rural districts particularly in Southern Province, few parts of Central, Western and Eastern Provinces reported increased maize prices in May," FEWS NET said. Inflation, which increased to 20.9 percent from 17.8 percent in April, would put further pressure on household buying power. "This was largely attributed to price increases of major foods other than maize and maize meal. The [Zambian] kwacha has significantly depreciated against the United States dollar in the last two months. Between mid-May and June alone, there was a five percent depreciation. "With the impending maize imports there will be increased pressure on foreign exchange which could depreciate the local currency further," the agency warned. The full report will be available shortly on: www.fews.net