Risk of conflict still high

The risk of conflict developing or escalating in the West African countries of The Gambia, Guinea, Liberia, Senegal and Sierra Leone exists, but in varying levels, according to an April 2002 assessment by the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) project. The 'Conflict Risk Assessment Report' was based on nine issues identified as underlying the potential for conflict development in each country. These were a history of armed conflict, governance and political instability, militarisation, population heterogeneity, demographic stress, economic performance, human development, environmental stress, and international linkages. CIFP used a scale of risk indices ranging from 0 to 12, with 0-3.4 considered low risk, 3.5-6.9 medium risk, 7-9.5 high risk, and 9.5-12 very high risk. It found that Sierra Leone had the highest risk with an overall index of 7.2 followed by Liberia at 6.4, Guinea (5.4), Senegal (5.3) and The Gambia (5.0). Overall, the risk rating was medium to high. Several indicators were highlighted in the report, including number of refugees produced over a period of time, durability of the countries' political regimes, military expenditure, ethnic diversity and population growth, GDP growth rates and debt, access to improved water and sanitation, diseases and life expectancy and school enrolment. The risk of economic instability in Sierra Leone was found to be very high (9.6 ) while the risks rates stemming from armed conflict and weak governance were high (9.3 and 8.3). The low level of human development was also a high-risk factor, the report noted. In Liberia, the highest risk index was for weak governance and political instability (7.5), while other highs related to low human development and armed conflict. Guinea and The Gambia had high risk indices in connection with low levels of human development, weak governance and political instability. The report is available on http://www.carleton.ca/cifp/