IRIN Focus on signing the peace accord

As the long-awaited date for signing the Burundi peace accord draws nearer, the various sides are jostling for position and expressing disquiet over the draft document issued to delegates in the negotiating town of Arusha, Tanzania, last month. The current wrangling has prompted many observers to note that the signing ceremony, scheduled for 28 August, now hangs in the balance, although the peace process facilitator, Nelson Mandela, is adamant the date will be adhered to. Among the main players, the Burundi government, the army, the Tutsi-dominated UPRONA party and the two main armed rebel groups [CNDD-FDD and PALIPEHUTU-FNL] have indicated they will not sign the document as it is or until certain conditions are met. In fact, PALIPEHUTU-FNL refused to attend the last round of negotiations in Arusha, citing differences with the facilitation team. Jean Minani, who leads the external wing of the FRODEBU opposition party - and who is tipped as President Pierre Buyoya’s main rival for the transitional leadership - has expressed willingness to sign the document, as has the radical Tutsi PARENA party of former president Jean-Baptiste Bagaza. In fact, the latter two parties have formed a sort of alliance to cover their own anti-Buyoya interests. “In any negotiations you have actors trying to raise the stakes when the time for an agreement nears. We shall not be surprised if they turn around and sign after behind-the-scenes negotiations,” said Francois Grignon, a political analyst with the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG). According to Grignon, the facilitator is using the “sufficient consensus strategy” which is aimed at convincing the major parties to sign the agreement, instead of obtaining a consensus from all 19 negotiating sides which, he said, “is difficult if not impossible”. Regional analysts point out that small parties will be marginalised if they do not ally themselves with the major players. Diplomatic sources told IRIN that the attention of the facilitation team has shifted to President Buyoya. “If the facilitation team can work on Buyoya to sign the agreement, the army and UPRONA will follow suit,” a source told IRIN. The government of Burundi this week announced that certain aspects of the draft agreement were “not practical”. Government spokesman Luc Rukingama described the document as “replete with confusion, ambiguity and double standards”. Meanwhile, President Buyoya arrived in South Africa on Thursday for talks with Mandela, ahead of the resumption of negotiations in Arusha on 7 August. Diplomatic sources said they believed the discussions in South Africa would focus on the leadership of the interim period after the agreement was signed. “Buyoya will definitely be given a chance to lead the interim period for probably six months and most parties seem to be content with this, as long as there is a clear legal framework that cannot be manipulated,” one source told IRIN. The interim period will concentrate mainly on the organisation of the transitional administration, negotiating a ceasefire agreement, reform of the armed forces, bringing back refugees, disarming civilians and mobilising international aid. Major issues still to be agreed upon before the signing of the agreement include the question of genocide, release of political prisoners, the electoral system, amnesty for political actors since independence and integration of the rebels into the national army. The chairman of negotiating Committee Two on democracy and good governance, Professor Nicholas Haysom, told IRIN a clearer picture would emerge after next week’s meeting in Arusha. Mathias Hitimana, the president of the pro-monarchist PRP party negotiating in Arusha, agreed. “The session next week will be very important because people will be trying to play their last cards and this will determine whether the agreement is signed on 28 August or not,” he told IRIN. “The problem is that all parties have expectations which are mutually exclusive,” Professor Haysom added. “The facilitation team had to draw a middle ground which axed out party interests, so definitely they could not easily agree with the draft.” In a letter, Mandela pointed out to the negotiating sides: “You are no doubt aware that there are influential and experienced political analysts who are convinced that the negotiating parties are not interested in the welfare of the Barundi [people] nor in lasting peace and stability; that in Arusha they are busy promoting their personal interests.” He called on them to “avoid wrangling and vying with one another on such an important issue”. Uganda, which has been chairing a regional peace initiative, also urged the parties to sign the agreement. “We are fully behind President Mandela’s efforts to come up with a negotiated settlement to the Burundi problem,” the foreign affairs minister in charge of regional cooperation, Amama Mbabazi, told IRIN. “It is not in the interest of any party to continue fighting.” He warned that he could not rule out “the option of imposing sanctions again if the region concludes that the peace process is being deliberately obstructed”. [See also “IRIN Focus on the Burundi peace process” of 20 July]