Optimistic forecast for southern harvest

A UN food security unit has forecast a better than expected harvest for January-February in southern Somalia following the Deyr short rains. A report by the Food Security Analysis Unit (FSAU), which is funded by the European Union and implemented by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), said the harvest "is likely to exceed average Deyr cereal production, which varies between 90,000 and 110,000 mt". Estimates showed that the combined cereal production of maize and sorghum could reach 161,000 mt - this was double the postwar average, and 68 percent greater than the Deyr 2000 harvest, the report said. The bulk of the production was expected to come from Lower Shabelle (68,000 mt), Bay (43,000 mt) and Middle Shabelle (20,000 mt) regions. The main factors contributing to the enhanced Deyr crop performance in these regions included fairly good rainfall, rehabilitation of agricultural infrastructure in Lower and Middle Shabelle regions, and stable river levels. If the forecast was correct, the harvest should go a considerable way towards easing current hardships particularly for poorer and more vulnerable households in the south, the report said. It warned, however, that the optimistic forecast would only be met "if the long dry spell has not caused irreversible moisture stress, there is no unusual insect damage, no insecurity in the agricultural areas...and no unusual drop in river water".