FOCUS on impending National Assembly session

Members of parliament are gathering in the Eritrean capital Asmara for a long-awaited session of the National Assembly. Normally, this is preceded by a central council meeting of the ruling People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ). No date has been announced for the National Assembly meeting which comes against the backdrop of political dissension in the country, but official sources say it is imminent. The last meeting was held in September 2000, and analysts point out the current session is long overdue. Parliamentary elections, due in December 2001, were put on hold as no National Assembly session had been held to ratify an electoral law and a law on political pluralism. It is expected that the forthcoming session will address these issues. Other probable topics on the agenda include the repatriation of refugees, the situation of internally displaced people following the border war with Ethiopia, next month's border ruling in The Hague, the country's first national budget and the issue of detained dissidents. Dissidents Last May, 15 members of the PFDJ, some of them government ministers, all of them MPs, circulated a widely publicised letter accusing President Isayas Afewerki of "illegal and unconstitutional" rule and demanding that the National Assembly be convened. Three are in self-imposed exile, another later backtracked, while the remaining 11 are now in detention. Furthermore, the popular private press which disseminated the views of the dissidents, was shut down in what the government describes as a "temporary suspension". The Italian ambassador was subsequently expelled for "interfering in internal matters" and as a result other European envoys were temporarily recalled to their countries for consultations, putting a question mark over continued financial aid. Italy, the former colonial power, is Eritrea's biggest donor. As the convening of the National Assembly approaches, government opponents are stepping up their campaign. Two of the exiled dissidents, former defence minister and Southern Region governor Mesfin Hagos and former ambassador Adhanom Gebremariam, have written an open letter to the National Assembly urging members "not to stay quiet" during the meeting. They accuse the president of "monopolising" the country's institutions and of turning the nation "into one big prison". They claim he wants to "annihilate and physically liquidate" all those "advocating for democratic change". Regional observers believe the letter is an attempt to "provoke" MPs into calling for government accountability, particularly with regard to the detained dissidents. EPLF Opposition Group In another development, an opposition group calling itself the Eritrean People's Liberation Front-Democratic Party (EPLF-DP) announced its formation over Eritrean opposition websites. The announcement gave no precise details of its membership or programme, apart from stating that the founders had "ceased to be members of the PFDJ". Again accusing Isayas of "blocking the process of democratic transition", the announcement states that it is "imperative to form a new party". "Although we were forced by circumstances to issue this declaration from abroad, we nonetheless inform the public that our main base is inside our country," the statement says. Analysts believe it has the backing of Mesfin Hagos and other disenchanted PFDJ members. The new group goes on to say it will soon publicise its programme and constitution, as well as the names of its founding members. Regional analysts told IRIN that the aims of the EPLF-DP were rather nebulous, but said it had probably been created to coincide with the National Assembly meeting and the possible legalisation of political parties. But they wondered whether it would actually represent a true opposition to the PFDJ (formed in 1994 from the Eritrean People's Liberation Front which brought independence to the country), noting that by sticking to the EPLF name, the ideals were probably not so different. One analyst said the EPLF-DP members were ex-EPLF reformers "who saw the light too late". He noted that the EPLF was a formidable fighting force with the necessary single-mindedness and discipline to win a war, but that no "safety valve" had been put in place for the subsequent democratisation of the country. And he was unsure whether the EPLF-DP would "fill the gap". Government's View One of the dissidents' main complaints was the government's failure to convene the National Assembly. Official sources believe that now this argument has been removed, these latest moves are aimed at disrupting the session. The government has labelled the dissidents as "opportunists" who want to create division along religious lines in a country that is roughly half Moslem, half Christian and which appears to co-exist without major problems. The sources dismissed the EPLF-DP as "nothing more than a talking shop", saying that without publishing a programme or internal constitution it could not call itself a party. "It is doubtful that such a grouping will leave much impression on the Eritrean political landscape," one source said, noting that the country had already witnessed many splinter groups from the original Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF) - predecessor of the EPLF. One regional observer also pointed out that people will be waiting to see if Mesfin Hagos, who has vowed to return to Eritrea, will indeed go back and take up his seat at the National Assembly meeting. The international community is expecting to see signs of democratisation from the National Assembly session. Although there has been no official statement regarding the postponed elections, Eritrea's deputy ambassador in Nairobi Temedhin Temariam told IRIN that the current situation was not conducive for such a poll. The country's main focus, he said, was next month's crucial ruling on border demarcation by the Boundary Commission in The Hague, following Eritrea's two-year border war with Ethiopia which ended in 2000. "The peace process is moving ahead, albeit slowly, and elections cannot be the priority," he said. Observers believe the National Assembly will issue some sort of declaration regarding the elections. Conclusion Analysts underline the unity of Eritreans - especially when faced with an outside threat such as the war with Ethiopia - and do not believe that the country is under great pressure internally. But they stress the growing divisions among diaspora Eritreans, whose remittances to the country are its biggest foreign exchange earnings. Should these decline sharply, along with a possible drop in donor money if Eritrea's democratisation takes too long, then the country's long-term development could be seriously affected.