IRIN Focus on opposition alliance

Manoeuvres among opposition parties in Angola this week could pave the way to a united opposition in coming months to challenge the 25-year dominance of the ruling MPLA party. Seven parties organised a three-day congress which began on Tuesday in Luanda under the banner, ‘One opposition, unique and indivisible, for a better Angola’. Described as “historic”, the congress signalled the first public attempt by opposition leaders to build a broad front against the MPLA ahead of national elections due next year. That the MPLA, in power since independence, is expected to win, seems to have provoked the opposition to consider an alliance. “I believe that we have launched the seeds to provide a framework of working together and eventually, at the end of the day, having a united opposition for the future elections,” commented Abel Chivukuvuku, a UNITA politician. Peace first However, the quest of the seven parties goes further than the ballot box. Fundamentally, they believe that peace must be attained across an entire country wracked by 25-years of almost non-stop conflict, before elections can take place. On Thursday, the Congress concluded with a set of five resolutions, including a call for an immediate ceasefire, permanent dialogue and a process of conflict resolution between the government and UNITA rebel forces fighting in the bush. “We realise that whatever our programme is towards national reconciliation or reconstruction, it cannot be successful if we don’t have peace, definitive peace, in our country,” said Jaka Jamba, a member of UNITA’s Luanda-based political opposition, and second vice-president to the National Assembly. If the seven parties are to succeed, many argue that they have no choice but to form an official union. On Thursday, it was clear that they still lacked consensus on strategy. “The problem is that the MPLA party has its programme - to have elections next year - and the opposition parties don’t,” commented Joao Faria, a lawyer and journalist. Traditional politics Traditionally, Angola’s electorate has either supported the MPLA or UNITA. The results of Angola’s first nationwide elections in September 1992 reflected the dichotomy. From a turn-out of 91 percent of registered voters, the MPLA won 54 percent in the legislative elections and UNITA 34 percent. In the presidential poll, it was even closer. President Jose Eduardo dos Santos scored 49.6 percent to UNITA leader Jonas Savimbi’s 40.7 percent. Savimbi’s rejection of the UN-monitored election resulted in a return to civil war, followed by a shaky peace in 1994, and a resumption of full-scale fighting in 1998 launched by the government over UNITA’s repeated failure to abide by the peace agreement. Opposition parties tend to be weak. During the last two years, they have become weaker due to internal splits. UNITA’s political wing is broadly divided between those who support Eugenio Manuvakola, president of the breakaway faction UNITA-Renovada, and those who don’t. The division in the National Front for the Liberation of Angola (the FNLA) is between Holden Roberto, who established the party in the 1960s, and Lucas N’Gonda, who claims to be the new president. At least two other parties have recently split. Allegations that the MPLA is behind the fractures are common. Roberto claims he has information to prove that N’Gonda was bought by the ruling party. The majority of UNITA parliamentarians also allege that Manuvakola is little more than a puppet of the MPLA. Rumours about ‘sell-outs’ have led local journalists to conclude that ‘Angola has two oppositions: one in favour of the MPLA, the other against’. Opposition unity “These three days have shown that the parties who came here are the opposition,” Luis Do Nascimento, president of the Front for Democracy (FpD), told IRIN. “The parties who weren’t here aren’t an opposition. They’re a pro-government opposition and a pro-government force is not an opposition.” One commentator said the speeches of the seven parties on Tuesday showed how good they are at criticising the government but how poor they are at producing their own solutions. But Dr Jose Cerqueira, an economist at the Catholic University of Angola, believes the opposition may have too many solutions. “A problem I see with the opposition is that they try to be too inventive about solutions to poverty and so on,” said Cerqueira. “They can have different opinions on political, juridical and social issues but on the economic issues, they must have a consensus. If they hold different postures, the economic problems of this country will continue.” Analia De Victoria Perreira, president of the Liberal Democratic Party (PLD), told IRIN that there is a large diversity among the parties. “We don’t have the same position on all issues. We have different ideologies, doctrines and diverse political thought,” said Perreira, who nevertheless argues that the diversity of the parties is less important than the areas of consensus. “Fundamentally, we agree on peace, on war, on questions about the displaced people, education and health,” she said. “Our quality is that we are going to proceed.” On 17 August, the seven parties are due to meet again to finalise their future strategy. Other, smaller opposition groups will also be invited to participate in the discussions that began this week. One western diplomat believes that if a some sort of formal union results from this, the opposition’s role in Angola could be “greatly improved”. “The bottom line,” the diplomat said, “is that there are seven of these parties showing what their strength could be like if they get their act together. If they form a secretariat or some kind of coordinating mechanism, it could greatly strengthen their voice, if not necessarily their power.”