Observers sceptical about reconciliation conference's prospects

The Iraqi Islamic Reconciliation Conference (IIRC), scheduled to be held in Amman, Jordan, on 22 April, is unlikely to end Iraq’s ongoing sectarian violence, say observers in Jordan. “We don’t expect a relevant outcome from this conference,” said Mouyad al-Windawi, an Iraqi political scientist at the Arab Institute for Research and Strategic Studies in Amman. The gathering – organised by the Amman-based Ahl al-Bayt Institute for Islamic Thought and the Arab League, and held under the auspices of Jordan’s King Abdullah – aims at finding a lasting solution to sectarian violence by bringing together Sunni and Shi’ite religious leaders. The event is expected to conclude with a signed declaration stating that ongoing fighting between Sunnis and Shi’ites has no legitimate basis in Islam. Many observers, however, express pessimism as to the IIRC’s prospects. “We already know that many Shi’ite religious leaders won’t participate, and the Sunnis who are coming have little power,” said al-Windawi. “In any case, Iraqi political life is in the hands of politicians and party leaders – not in the hands of religious leaders.” Analysts in Amman and Baghdad echoed this view. “The influence of Iraqi religious leaders who caution restraint has waned in the face of ongoing violence,” said International Crisis Group’s Joost Hiltermann in Amman. Ordinary Iraqis are no less sceptical: “The leaders who will be meeting aren’t the real authors of the violence,” said Abbas Samaraye, owner of a Baghdad restaurant. “For this reason, nothing will change. More innocent people will die everyday until a new government takes charge and US troops leave.” Haki Muhammad, a 48-year-old Baghdad shopkeeper, agreed. “Conference participants will be more concerned about their own interests than those regarding the security and prosperity of the whole of Iraq,” he said. “The main problem remains the presence of US troops in the country.” Nevertheless, in what has been regarded as a significant vote of confidence in the event, Shi’ite leader Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani is now expected to send a representative after previously declaring his decision not to participate. Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, head of the Shi’ite Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), meanwhile, will be represented by prominent SCIRI official Ammar al-Hakim. “We’ll participate and strive to work for peace…because innocent civilians should be saved from this violence,” said senior SCIRI official Jalal al-Deen. “Nothing justifies the violence because we’re all Muslims.” Radical Shi’ite leader Moqtada Sadr will also send a representative, as will Ayatollah Mohamed Said al-Hakim, who has said he would send his son, Ali, to represent him. Expected representatives of the Sunni community, meanwhile, will include Hareth al-Dari, head of the Sunni Commission of Muslim Scholars; Adnan Dulaimi, who heads the Iraqi Accord Front, the largest Sunni bloc in parliament; Saleh Mutlag, leader of the Iraqi National Dialogue Front; and Tareq al-Hashimi, Secretary-General of the Iraqi Islamic Party, according to informed sources. The Amman meeting is also expected to feature religious leaders from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Egypt, Palestine, Syria, Turkey and Iran as well as other Arab and Muslim countries. Among them will be Grand Imam of Egypt’s Al-Azhar University Sheikh Muhammad Sayyed Tantawi, the leading religious authority in Egypt’s Sunni Muslim establishment. The IIRC will build on the outcome of the International Islamic Conference that took place in Amman last summer, said conference spokesperson Abdul Salam Abbadi. “We will seek to defuse sectarian violence and religious tension,” said Abbadi. “Political solutions will not succeed in Iraq without a religious solution.” Sectarian violence between Shiite and Sunni Muslims has increased dramatically following the 22 February bombing of a revered Shiite shrine in Samarra. Since then, reprisal attacks against Sunni mosques and religious leaders have been reported countrywide, and have led many observers to warn of impending civil war.