Year in Review 2005 - Democratic developments

Presidential elections are planned in Yemen for September 2006, amid a number of ongoing challenges to the process of democratisation.

According to local and international analysts, the upcoming presidential contest, which will be combined with local council elections, will significantly loosen the political environment.

"The presidential election will show that the country is on the right track in terms of democratisation, that it’s a gradual process and that all political forces in the country are satisfied with the results," said Mohammed al-Sabri, a political analyst and researcher at Sana University.

Since 1990, Yemen has been considered by the international community and donor nations to be one of the few Arab states taking concrete steps towards democratisation, based mainly on three successful parliamentary elections held in 1993, 1997 and 2003.

In the last of these, the ruling General Peoples' Congress (GPC) won a landslide victory, winning 226 out of a total of 301 elected seats.

President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who helped unite politically separate northern and southern parts of Yemen in 1990, announced in July 2005 that he would not seek re-election next year. He added that his decision was meant to encourage other candidates to run for president.

The decision shocked members of both the ruling party and the opposition coalition, a-Leka al-Mushtarak, which is comprised of the Islamic Islah Party; the Socialist party; the Nasserist Unionist party; the al-Haq party; the Ba'athist party; and the Popular Forces Union party.

The upper echelons of the ruling party have discouraged the move, with the seventh GPC general conference in December 2005 demanding that Saleh again run for office. The opposition, by contrast, has hailed Saleh’s decision to step aside, saying the step would pave the way for a peaceful transfer of power and the promotion of democracy.

But political analysts warn that the president may yet change his mind and run for another 6-year term in office.

Saleh remains a shrewd politician who has managed to overcome numerous difficulties while significantly influencing the development of political discourse for over 25 years.

According to one western diplomat based in Yemen, Western nations – including the US – believe he continues to be the best candidate for the presidency, due to his long experience and ability to appeal to Yemen’s multifarious ethnic and social groups.

In turn, Saleh’s cooperation with Washington’s "War on Terror" has helped cement his powerbase at home: "Cooperation with the US has enhanced the power of Saleh's regime and expanded his control over the country," said the diplomat, requesting anonymity.

Saleh has said openly that he feared a US attack against Yemen in the wake of the suicide bombing of the US destroyer Cole in the harbour of Aden in October 2000, which killed 17 American servicemen and injured 39. The attack has been attributed to Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda terrorist organisation.

Yemen has since been able to better control its security, arresting thousands of terrorist suspects. Over 30 suspects have been prosecuted, while others still await trial or have been released.

A committee set up by the president in 2002 comprised of a number of moderate Muslim clerics, has conducted dialogue with extremists to encourage a more "moderate" interpretation of Islam.

The US, with the aid of other donors, is also helping Yemen set up a modern coastguard to patrol its long and porous coastline.

Many local and international human rights organisations, however, complain that successes" in the war against terrorism, are being achieved at the expense of democracy and human rights.

"Security forces in Yemen embarked on mass and arbitrary arrests, detentions and deportations of foreign nationals in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks," according to a 2003 report from rights watchdog Amnesty International.

Those arrested included women and children as young as 12, the report noted, and the arrests were carried out without the judicial supervision required by law. Detainees were invariably subject to "lengthy incommunicado detention and interrogation, during which some claimed they were tortured or ill-treated," Amnesty stated.

Some al-Qaeda suspects have been held for years without trial. Independent media outlets have also been shut down, while journalists have been beaten up or arrested. No-go areas for press coverage include criticism of official corruption and suggestions that the president is grooming his eldest son, Ahmed, to succeed him.

Ahmed, 38, is the commander of both the Yemeni Republican Guard, the state’s premier military wing, and the Special Task Forces, devoted to fighting terrorism. Both bodies ultimately fall under the control of the president.

In late 2005, the opposition coalition launched an initiative to encourage political reform, calling for the introduction of a strengthened parliamentary system that would reduce the president’s all-encompassing authority. Saleh dismissed the initiative, calling it an attempt to overthrow the regime.

According to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), Yemen’s democratisation efforts face several major obstacles, including a culture based chiefly on tribal affiliations, "which puts a few rich men in absolute authority over all women and most other men."

"In other words, this is a culture of power, which accepts pluralism in form and in legislation, but rejects it in practice," stated an IDEA report published in November.

The report went on to note that loopholes in the current electoral system serve to limit the chances of opposition parties to garner the numbers of parliamentary seats needed to make them effective.

The Yemeni constitution, the report also points out, stipulates single-member electoral districts, which means that "voters vote for individual candidates rather than party lists, and this, combined with other factors, has helped kill pluralism before it has had a chance to develop."

The imbalance has yielded a parliament unable to hold the government accountable, the IDEA report concludes. "This again strengthens the executive branch at the expense of the legislature."

Al-Sabri notes that, during a visit to the White House in November, the US advised Saleh to pursue democratic reform, especially of laws governing elections, press freedom and the 111-member Shura Council, which advises the president.

The GPC subsequently announced a number of reforms during its seventh general conference in December, including the allocation of a 15-percent quota to women in upcoming elections. It has also recommended that half of the Shura Council members, as well as governors and district directors, should be elected rather than appointed.

However, nothing has yet come of the recommendations.

Despite obstacles, Yemen is taking some steps towards democratisation, according to political analyst, al-Sabri.

The restructuring of the ruling party, a November decision to set up an independent committee to crack down on corruption, and the establishment of a credible opposition are all "good signals" that will help overcome the challenges, he said.