Searching for common ground on peace

An amnesty offer by the Angolan government to UNITA rebel leader Jonas Savimbi could represent the beginning of a search for a political solution to the decades-old civil war, analysts told IRIN. Angolan military chief General Joao de Matos said on a visit to South Africa last week that Savimbi could be offered an exemption from prosecution if he accepted peace, a reversal of the government’s previous position which labelled the rebel leader a “war criminal” who could not be part of a settlement. Angolan President Jose Eduardo dos Santos also said on national radio on Friday, in response to South Africa’s position that the solution to the Angolan conflict is political rather than military: “There are diplomatic, military and political solutions. We look at all avenues to achieve peace.” Earlier this month, the Angolan government offered a general pardon for UNITA, which was rejected by the rebel movement. “There seems to be some kind of olive branch being extended to UNITA by the government,” Greg Mills, the director of the South African Institute of International Affairs told IRIN. “This may reflect the position taken by the international community that dialogue is the only way to end the conflict, and the realisation by the military that it would be very hard to win the war.” The government appears bolstered by the fact that its military campaign has at least eroded UNITA’s conventional war capacity. The UN’s sanctions noose is also gradually having an impact on UNITA’s ability to fund the conflict, offering the government a chance to negotiate from a position of relative strength. “Things ultimately for Savimbi can only get worse,” Mills, a long-standing Angola watcher, said. He noted there is also domestic pressure on the government, notably from the influential churches, to enter into a meaningful dialogue with UNITA. “Increasingly, that seems to be the line at least rhetorically adopted by the government,” Mills added. That position, however, has so far not been taken up by UNITA. “Most people find it fairly inexplicable that (Savimbi) wants to continue with the war and not accept dialogue except on his own terms,” Mills said. But he suggested that both sides could be at the stage of sending out feelers, “which might eventually build some common ground” on which to address the issue of a political settlement. However, “I think there’s a huge amount of scepticism about any peace agreement struck in Angola because of Savimbi’s unreliability in the past,” a reference to Savimbi’s breaching of two previous peace agreements. Mills stressed that given the distrust and enmity between both sides, a genuine peace process “would need quite a long time to build up a head of steam. It would be a gentle process, and I suspect the offer of amnesty (for Savimbi) is part of that process.”