The succession debate

As President Joaquim Chissano serves out his last term of office, a debate is simmering between two distinct factions in his ruling FRELIMO party to determine his successor, analysts have told IRIN. The succession contest within FRELIMO is likely to be between the party’s “modernists” and “traditionalists”, analysts say. They argue that although Chissano has not yet openly said who his preferred successor is, he has indicated that he wants to see a “modernist” follow in his footsteps - someone who will continue with his policies of economic liberalisation and maintain the current relationship with international institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank. In May Chissano told the FRELIMO central committee that he would not stand for re-election once his term of office expired in 2004. With this announcement he began the succession process and debate within the party. In his address to the committee Chissano said that Mozambique was an “evolving and modernising” country and that FRELIMO should not be a “static” and “tied to the virtues of the past”. This statement clearly indicated his preference for a modern and forward looking successor who will continue with his reforms, not only of the government but of the party as well, analysts say. They believe a successor will probably be chosen at FRELIMO’s eighth party congress next June. “There are two camps within FRELIMO. Those who have agreed with and supported the policies and programmes that Chissano has followed and those who have not. The more traditionalists in the party see some of the policies that Chissano has adopted as being too severe, that he has taken the idea of following an open free-market economy too far. They have questioned, all be it in private, the actual benefit that these policies have had. They have argued that Chissano has lost the socialist ideals upon which FRELIMO was based,” a Maputo-based analyst told IRIN. “On the other hand there is that modernising element who have taken their lead from Chissano and who would like to continue with what he has started. They are mainly a group of young technocrats who basically have no problem with the path that Chissano has adopted.” The analyst added that an important factor in the succession issue was the sentiment of the international financing and donor community. “Most of the FRELIMO top brass know that they need to choose someone who institutions like the IMF and the World Bank will be able to work with, and who will be willing to work with them. Chissano and those around him have spent quite a lot of time cultivating these relationships and building up trust. But whether or not that has mass appeal among the ordinary card-carrying FRELIMO members is in my opinion quite another story.” He added: “Choosing a new leader is far from simply being an internal issue. It is far broader and I believe that the choice of the next leader will dictate in which direction Mozambique goes, especially in relation to economics.” In a statement last week the World Bank said that Mozambique had more promising prospects for sustainable growth and development than anywhere else in southern Africa. According to the bank’s latest economic memorandum on Mozambique, the economy has grown an average 8 percent a year from 1994 to 1999. This has since fallen to about 7.7 percent per year because of the devastating floods that the country experienced in late 1999 and early 2000, and then again early this year. However, the state news agency, AIM quoted government statistics indicating that the economy grew by a mere 2.1 percent in 2000. Recently Antonio Gumende, analyst and editor in chief of the Southern African Research and Documentation Centre (SARDC) in Maputo, told IRIN that the majority of ordinary Mozambicans were still not reaping the benefits of the so-called “economic boom” the country has experienced since the elections in 1994. According to the UNDP’s 2000 Human Development Index (HDI), Mozambique ranks 168 out of 174 countries. A report by UNDP in Maputo earlier this year quoted government statistics as saying that an estimated 69 percent of the population live below the poverty line. The report also stated that over 60 percent of the adult population in Mozambique were illiterate, with just under 60 percent of children between 6-12 years not attending school. The possible FRELIMO candidates In an update on Tuesday the London-based Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) named four possible contenders for the FRELIMO leadership. According to the EIU one of the strongest contenders at the moment is Speaker of Parliament Eduardo Mulembue who hails from the northern Niassa province. “Although his performance in parliament has been criticised as weak by hardliners, he is an influential figure. His perceived weakness could make him an attractive compromise for factions hoping to extend their influence,” the EIU noted. Another strong possible candidate named by the EIU is FRELIMO’s secretary-general, Manuel Tome. Tome is a relative newcomer to the party from the post-independence era and has been associated with the modernising wing of the party. “Although regarded as an influential figure who has the potential to be a consensus candidate, he is not yet a political heavyweight who commands wide respect in the party. His advantage is that he is the youngest of the four front runners and his origins are in Manica province in the centre of the country,” said the EIU. The EIU also named Armando Guebuza as another possible candidate. Guebuza is head of the FRELIMO parliamentary group and a hardliner who has adopted, the EIU noted, a “nationalist” stance on economic matters. The EIU added that Guebuza was unpopular with the government and foreign donors. “His personal involvement in serious human rights abuses during the era of the one-party state makes him a controversial figure who is unpopular with civil society groups and wide sections of the general public. Poor health, age, extensive business interests accumulated while in government and his origin as a Rongo from Maputo also weigh against him. He will influence the succession should his own candidacy be unsuccessful,” noted the EIU. Prime Minister Pascoal Mocumbi has also been mentioned by the unit as a possible successor. According to the EIU, Mocumbi’s “liberal instincts are well suited to the times”. He is a technocrat and has been thought of as a low-key political player associated with the modernising element of the party. However, diplomatic sources in Maputo told IRIN that Mocumbi was not really a popular choice as successor despite his position as prime minister. “To a certain extent Mocumbi is seen as being too much of a modernist. There are those within the party who feel he does not have enough of a socialist side to him,” one diplomat said. “In my opinion, and I now many within the diplomatic community who are watching this process very carefully realise that, who ever is chosen has to be able to play some kind of balancing act. On the one hand to be able to understand the pressures that the country faces from large financial institutions around the world, and on the other hand to deliver on the very real development issues that the country has.”