Transition accord a “façade”

According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), many analysts believe however that the “sudden willingness to compromise” is just a façade. “This is a hard war to bring to an end,” the EIU said. “It does not have a front line or two well-defined opposing groups. It is full of paradoxes and crossovers.” It said neither side could win. “The whole region seems set for a war of attrition between the beleaguered but well-armed Tutsis in power and the more numerous and resentful Hutus,” the EIU stated.

“The new accord, negotiated by [peace mediator] Mr Mandela, has the same shortcomings as all the other failed agreements. First, only unarmed parties have signed. The accord excludes the country’s two armed rebel Hutu groups: the Forces for National Liberation (FNL) and the Forces for the Defence of Democracy,” the EIU added. “President Buyoya is not known for compromise either. This agreement leaves him in power for the moment and gives him a smooth, face-saving exit.”

The EIU also said the agreement failed to take account of Burundi’s neighbours - Rwanda, Tanzania and the DRC. “Small and landlocked, Burundi depends heavily on them, but its civil war has extended into their territory and politics,” it noted.