Adverse weather impacts on maize production

Dry conditions have continued to affect maize production in many countries in southern Africa, USAID’s Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) said in its latest update this week. “Overall, the late onset of the rains and prolonged dry spells in parts of most countries have adversely affected maize production. While flooding in some parts of the region has also affected maize production in localised areas, the overall impact on national production levels has been relatively minor,” the update noted. It added that in Angola and Mozambique it was possible that maize production could be “notably above” the past ten-year average. “Both countries have provided a range of production forecasts. Under the best case scenario in Angola, production is likely to be more than 46 percent above average and almost 31 percent above last year’s production, while under the worst-case scenario production is still forecast to be 32 percent above average,” the update said. “Under the best and worst case scenarios in Mozambique, production is expected to be between 62 and 49 percent more than the past ten-year average. Under either scenario, production will be better than last year, which was adversely affected by heavy flooding.” However, it added that the food security situation in some parts of the country was “worrisome”, particularly in the south where some households have lost their crops in two successive seasons, the first seasons of 1999/2000 and of 2000/01. “These households no longer have food reserves and are therefore, dependent on food aid or local markets until the second agricultural season (June/July) which they have begun planting for,” the update warned. It said that officials in Malawi were also forecasting maize production levels 25 percent above average, but 15 percent below last year’s bumper harvest. Despite the increase, heavy rains in March in most parts of the country, hampered the harvesting of crops and worsened the flood/water logging conditions in some parts of the country. Several organisations continue to provide assistance to flood victims. WFP has distributed over 500 mt of maize to flood victims under its Immediate Response Operation. The update said that in comparison, Botswana and Namibia were both expecting maize production below average. In Botswana officials were “anticipating” levels below last year’s normal production. In Namibia officials, the update said, were expecting maize production at an estimated 33 percent below he ten-year average and 59 percent less than last year. Below-average maize production was also forecast in South Africa and Zimbabwe, down by an estimated 15 percent. In the case of Zimbabwe the update said that the deficit would need to be met through commercial imports if foreign currency was available. Zimbabwe needs to import 60,000 mt of wheat before the next harvest in October 2001,” FEWS warned. In Swaziland maize production is expected to be down by about 11 percent. “Zambia is expecting between 11 percent above to 15 percent below average, while maize production in Lesotho is expected to range from 1 to 19 percent below average,” the update said.