Focus on political and military developments

The fate of the government of Prime Minister Caetano Inchama is expected to be decided when Guinea-Bissau's parliament reopens in February, sources in Bissau told IRIN. Another issue likely to be discussed, the sources said, is the fighting between Guinea-Bissau's army and the Mouvement des forces democratiques de Casamance (MFDC), which wants independence for Casamance in southern Senegal. Guinea-Bissau was headed by a two-party coalition until early January when the six cabinet members from the Resistencia da Guine (RGB) resigned following a dispute over a cabinet reshuffle. The new cabinet is made up solely of President Kumba Yala's Partido da Renovacao Social (PRS), which has only 37 seats in the 102-member legislature. A diplomatic source in Bissau told IRIN that the Intchama government was likely to fall when the legislature reconvenes. "All it takes is for the RGB to present a no-confidence motion," he said. "The opposition parties are likely to unite" against the PRS. Should that happen, Yala would be forced to appoint a new prime minister - one of the demands of the RGB - who would then select a new cabinet. Should the government fall on two further occasions, new legislative elections would have to be held, something Guinea-Bissau can ill afford, the source said. The question of Guinea-Bissau's role in the conflict between the Senegalese state and the MFDC is one of the biggest challenges facing both parliament and the administration in Bissau. "Guinea-Bissau has moved from being one of the mediators in the conflict to one of the parties," the diplomatic source said in a reference to recent fighting between the army and the MFDC. In mid-January, government sources reported that the Guinea-Bissau army had dislodged the MFDC from its bases in Varela and Susana, both located fewer than 15 km south of Guinea-Bissau's border with Senegal. This week, news organisations reported Yala as saying that 30 MFDC soldiers had been killed on Saturday in an attack by Guinea-Bissau soldiers. Yala reportedly described the attack as "deplorable" after opposition parties came out strongly against it. He made no mention of Guinea-Bissau casualties. The rebels killed on Saturday were members of the MFDC's southern command, led by Salif Sadio, which was involved in January in clashes with a rival faction loyal to the MFDC's secretary-general, The Reverend Diamacoune Senghor. The MFDC's spokesman in The Gambia, Alexandre Djiba, told IRIN on Wednesday that his organization did not know how many people were killed in the attack or any other details. Djiba said the attack was "foreseeable" because, on previous occasions, Sadio's troops had attacked and threatened Guinea-Bissau soldiers. The clash could have been avoided, he said. Djiba denied media reports that the MFDC had been using Guinea-Bissau as a rear base. However, the diplomatic source told IRIN that the MFDC was thought to have a strong presence in Guinea-Bissau north of the Cacheu River, including the area around the town of Sao Vicente, which is about 25 km south of the border. The guerrillas are generally undistinguishable from the local population, who belong to the same ethnic groups as those in Casamance, the source said. The clashes between the Guinea-Bissau army and the MFDC have led to concern in Bissau that the guerrillas might retaliate by attacking the capital, which is just 50 km south of Sao Vicente, the diplomatic source said. The MFDC has been fighting since 1982 for the independence of Casamance. Its fighters helped Guinea-Bissau's Junta Militar, led by General Ansumane Mane, when it mutinied in mid-1998 against President Joao Bernardo Vieira, who was backed by Senegalese and Guinean soldiers. Many members of the rebel group reportedly joined the Guinea-Bissau army after Mane overthrew Vieira in mid-1999. Mane was killed in December 2000 during an unsuccesful bid to seize control of the military from forces loyal to Yala, elected president in early 2000.