IRIN Focus on peace prospects

Nineteen months since full-scale fighting resumed in Angola, the prospect of peace remains distant. A successful government offensive last year, which led to the historic fall of UNITA’s central highland headquarters, has reaped limited results in terms of ending the conflict. “The end of the war is near,” said Joao Lourenco, secretary-general of the governing MPLA party, in November last year. Eight months on, UNITA seem far from defeated. “The dream of a knock-out blow after Andulo and Bailundo is evaporating,” comments Alex Vines, a senior researcher for Human Rights Watch and long-standing observer of Angola. Security fears Fears about military instability have soared this week due to warnings that UNITA has threatened to kidnap foreign aid workers. Diplomatic sources in Angola say the warning came from senior officials in the Angolan Armed Forces (FAA). Intelligence sources in the FAA learned that a senior UNITA general told rebel troops that the time is ripe to kidnap all expatriate humanitarian workers. “It’s caused a lot of confusion,” said one senior aid worker. “Most of the aid agencies are carrying on as normal but all of them are taking security precautions. There’s some terrified expats out there.” The main threat to security is thought to be in the two central highland provincial capitals of Huambo and Kuito. However, aid workers in the northern city of Malange are also on their guard. Foreign staff based in these areas have been advised to remain indoors after dark, to make car journeys in pairs, to maintain frequent radio contact and to travel within a limited radius of the city. The threats have raised concern about the FAA’s capacity to maintain control of urban centres. “In Uige, aid workers can work within a two km radius of the city,” said the same senior aid worker. “In other towns the security radius is down to 10 km. What does that tell you about the military situation!” Pressure for political solution Fears that the FAA’s favourable military position is receding, say some observers, is putting more pressure on the government to find a political solution to halt the conflict. Last week, hopes were raised when the state-owned daily newspaper, ‘Jornal De Angola’, reported that President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos “admits possibility of pardoning Savimbi”. During a speech in Bengo province, Dos Santos said: “We advocate a policy of forgiveness for all who seek the path of reason, for all who repent ... Maybe even Savimbi himself.” The President’s words, says Vines, reveal “a slight shift in position”. He may be moving away from his long-held view that war is the only way to achieve peace. A senior diplomat in Luanda said the speech is encouraging for the international community. However, if the words are to be taken at face value, the government will have to follow up with some concrete steps. “The government is saying things which a lot of people want to hear,” the diplomat commented. “However, most Angolans have lost hope in all the people who purport to represent them so actions will speak louder than words.” Calls for peace A senior Angolan journalist believes Dos Santos’ speech was designed to appease the Catholic church, which has become increasingly vocal in its calls for peace. The journalist said the ruling MPLA has “lost its grip on the church” during the past year. A march for peace took place earlier this month, organised by the recently-formed Inter-Ecclesiastical Committee for Peace in Angola (COIEPA). It was attended by thousands of Angolans including the head of the Catholic church in Angola, Dom Alexandre do Nascimento. Many opposition politicians were also present. Not a single member of the MPLA, however, turned up. In late July, COIEPA is due to hold a Congress for Peace in Luanda. It is expected that the meeting will step up pressure on both warring parties to call a cease-fire and enter into negotiations. Behind the military and political stage, the economic scenario is “extremely depressing”, said one analyst. Initial enthusiasm about the signing of an IMF Staff Monitored Programme in April this year is starting to wane. Although a significant step forward in terms of transparency and accountability in the oil industry, the chances of the SMP working have been described as “gloomy”. The SMP is seen as a first step by the government towards normalising relations with the IMF, unlocking donor budgetary financing. In the absence of IMF support, Angola has been forced to mortgage oil earnings to raise commercial loans which has deepened indebtedness at a time when the government’s share of oil production is set to fall. These large oil deals have been conducted with virtually no transparency, analysts say, impacting on issues of good governance in a country with some of the world’s worst social indicator figures. A recent report by Human Rights Watch about the SMP states that the information available to the IMF, the World Bank and the auditors “is completely dependent on how much the government decides to disclose and it is possible that the government could refuse to disclose any information”.