IRIN Focus on political referendum

On Thursday 29 June, Ugandans will vote in a referendum that will determine the country’s political system. The aim is to establish whether people want a multiparty system or remain with the system of single rule by the governing National Resistance Movement (NRM). The 1995 constitution calls for holding a referendum “to determine the political system the people of Uganda wish to adopt”, but residents and analysts alike believe the outcome is generally predictable. “The bus [the referendum symbol of the NRM] will win by a big majority on Thursday and we shall be on the streets celebrating. Drinks and food have already been bought,” one resident said. “The unique feature of the referendum poll is that the outcome is already decided before even the first ballot is cast,” said Robert Brandstetter, a consultant with the Washington-based International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES), who has been in Uganda for eight months advising on election monitoring. “The referendum contest is between a deeply entrenched Movement system which has monopolised political space for the last 14 years and the multiparty system which has been sidelined for an equally long period,” Ugandan history lecturer and political commentator Mwambusya Ndebesa added. However, the ruling NRM is not taking anything for granted, despite the edge it has in the opinion polls. “We still have a big job to do as the multiparty camp has adopted a two-pronged strategy,” the secretary of the Movement referendum campaign committee, Moses Byaruhanga, told IRIN. “One group is calling on people to boycott the referendum and another is vigorously campaigning for the multiparty system. So we are not leaving anything to chance.” In the first two weeks of June, the NRM held more than 60 public rallies as well as conducting numerous informal meetings, compared to 15 rallies held by the opposing multiparty camp. Observers say President Yoweri Museveni is using the referendum - the second major poll since the 1998 local elections - to campaign for presidential elections early next year. However, Byaruhanga insists the president has limited himself to referendum issues. The boycotting multiparty camp says it has had more impact on the referendum campaign than the participating multipartyists. One opposition MP, who is at the forefront of the boycott, explained that the referendum violates the constitution “by subjecting political choice to a vote”. “We have had more impact than our friends in the other camp who have fallen into the trap of participating in the referendum,” he added. “The Movement will win the poll but with an embarrassing election turnout thanks to our boycott campaign.” The acting editor of the independent ‘Monitor’ daily, Kevin Aliro, agrees. “The multiparty camp participating in the referendum has been largely dormant compared to the boycotting camp and the Movement who are very active,” he said. International donors have funded a civic education exercise for the referendum to the tune of US $3.8 million. But despite the funding, the exercise got off to a late start and many Ugandans appear not to understand what the referendum poll is all about. “The civic education exercise is further complicated by the legal framework under which the referendum is being organised,” Peter Bahemuka, the general secretary of the Uganda Journalists’ committee - one of the NGOs monitoring the referendum - told IRIN. “For example, the act was passed late and the symbols of the two opposing camps were approved late.” Western diplomats based in Kampala will act as international monitors, covering 17,000 polling stations countrywide. An estimated eight million people are expected to cast their ballots. While the campaign has been largely peaceful, some diplomats have expressed concern about anti-referendum rebel movements emerging after the poll. “We’ve got scanty reports about plans to form rebel movements by some disgruntled political groups, but it is not yet clear whether they will be aimed at disrupting the polls or long term plans to fight the government after the referendum,” a Kampala-based Western diplomat told IRIN.