Refugee influx could heighten social tensions

Kyrgyzstan is deeply divided about the role it should play in a possible US-led military operation in Afghanistan, with the main concern being that a massive influx of refugees could aggravate latent ethnic conflict in the south of the country. On Tuesday, Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev announced that his country was ready to open its airspace to US aircraft in the event of military operations in Afghanistan. Akayev’s statement clearly put Kyrgyzstan on the side of the Western alliance against terrorism, yet, in a country of Muslim heritage, such a decision could bring about serious divisions. "America has no right to conduct a war that will bring suffering to millions of Muslims, simply because of a handful of terrorists who claim to be Muslims. In the end, Kyrgyzstan will suffer," Ozubek Chotonov, editor of the 'Islam Culture' monthly newsletter and head of the Dil Murogu Cultural Centre, told IRIN on Thursday. "I don’t mind US planes using our air corridors, but I would be strongly against any US military presence on the ground, and most people I have talked to share the same opinion," Chotonov said. "A flow of Tajik refugees could break the balance in the south, where Uzbeks and Kyrgyz already have tense relations," Dzhyrgalbek Kasabolotov, head of the Bishkek InfoCenter and political analyst told IRIN. "If a third group comes in [such as Afghan refugees], several conflicts could start. Besides, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan also have territorial disputes in the Batken region, just like Uzbeks and Kyrgyz around Osh," he added. According to Chotonov, the main danger for Kyrgyzstan is that Akayev’s political choice could widen ethnic-religious fault lines in the country. "Kyrgyz Muslims are traditionally tolerant, and never fanatics. But I cannot say the same thing about Uzbek Muslims, who represent the largest part of fundamentalist movements in the south of the country, such as Hizb-ut-Tahrir [Liberation Party]. We don’t know how they will react to Kyrgyzstan’s involvement in a US-led operation," he said. Of Kyrgyzstan's total population of 4.8 million, 2.8 million ethnic Kyrgyz and 500,000 ethnic Uzbeks (as well as 800,000 ethnic Russians) are concentrated in the south of the country on the border with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. But although Uzbeks and Kyrgyz tend to be orthodox Sunni Muslims, tension between the two communities runs high. In 1990, a dispute over land redistribution broke out in Osh-Uzgen in southern Kyrgyzstan between ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbeks, who make up the majority of the population in that area. The conflict ended with several hundred people being slaughtered on the streets and in their houses. Since then, many Kyrgyz suspect local Uzbeks of aspiring to territorial reunification with neighbouring Uzbekistan. "Kyrgyz never go to an Uzbek mosque and vice-versa. There is no dialogue between Kyrgyz and Uzbek Muslims. We have separate forms of Islam, different traditions: the Uzbeks bury a dead person on the same day, the Kyrgyz keep the corpse at home for two to three days," Chotonov said. In this context, the arrival of refugees from Afghanistan through Tajikistan - who would most likely be ethnic Tajiks and Uzbeks (from the northern part of Afghanistan) - could sharpen resentment in the region. "The main threat for Kyrgyzstan comes from its borders with Tajikistan. Tajiks don’t need a visa to [enter] Kyrgyzstan, and can be pushed by Afghans in the south and the ongoing drought to cross the border to Kyrgyzstan", Kasabolotov told IRIN. Tajiks represent 90 percent of the estimated 10,000 refugees officially registered in Kyrgyzstan. From August to October 1999, Uzbek armed guerillas coming from Tajikistan infiltrated the southern region of Batken. In the eyes of Kyrgyz public opinion, Uzbeks and Tajiks have become associated with insecurity, and are seen as a threat to stability in Kyrgyzstan. Since the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991, the emergence of state borders in Central Asia has created hundreds of isolated enclaves where people live in small territories separated from their state. "There is a strong risk of division in the south of Kyrgyzstan. People are very concerned about safety, and a flow of refugees would only deepen the crisis," said Kasabolotov.