Focus on effects of military strikes on humanitarian action

US-led military strikes against Afghanistan using cruise missiles and bomber aircraft began on Sunday night. The BBC reported that Taliban defence systems, airports and terrorist training camps suspected to be operated by Osama bin Laden, the prime suspect behind the 11 September attacks on the US, were the main targets. The targets hit were in and around the capital, Kabul, and Jalalabad, both in the east, the Taliban's spiritual headquarters, Kandahar, in the southeast, Mazar-e Sharif in the north, and Herat in the West. President Bush announced on Sunday that US and British military action would be "sustained, comprehensive and relentless". Defence analysts told the BBC that the strikes marked the beginning of a lengthy campaign designed to dislodge the Taliban regime, and convince ordinary Afghans that it was no longer in charge. Although it is too soon to predict the implications of sustained strikes on the humanitarian situation, aid workers fear there could be a rapid deterioration in the condition of Afghan civilians, with the possibility of a fresh exodus of refugees. With relief operations suspended following the 11 September attacks, food and relief supplies inside Afghanistan are precariously low. The UN donor alert issued at the end of September predicted that sustained military attacks in Afghanistan could contribute to "famine conditions" with "large numbers of vulnerable [people] trapped by conflict, winter and prevailing chaos in many parts of the country". However, the UN Deputy Humanitarian Coordinator for Afghanistan, Antonio Donini, told IRIN on Monday that it was too early to tell what effect the strikes would have on the civilian population. "Our main concern is that there are seven million Afghans in need, and our ability to provide assistance was already constrained before the events of 11 September. Now the need is even greater," he said. Scope for humanitarian action UN and NGO partners are likely to have minimal or no access to Afghanistan against the backdrop of military strikes and an expected offensive by the opposition Northern Alliance. In the interim, life-saving aid is likely to come from the military coalition. US Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld told journalists on Sunday that the coalition's campaign would include a humanitarian component. Military action was intended "to create conditions for sustained anti-terrorist and humanitarian operations in Afghanistan", he said, adding that 37,500 "snowdrop" parcels of food and medicine were to be delivered by air on the first day of the campaign. The UNHCR spokesman in Washington, Panos Moumtzis, told the BBC that although this was welcome, far more was required to match the scale of the crisis. A resumption of trucking operations by WFP and partner NGOs has seen some food supplies reaching some of the main cities of Afghanistan, but the needs are massive. According to the WFP spokesman in Islamabad, Khaled Mansour, one in four people is now dependent on food aid. So far, WFP said that it had managed to deliver 5,000 mt of food to Kabul and Kandahar. The first supply in three weeks, this amount was expected to sustain the local population for about one week. In the light of continuing military strikes, the delivery of further supplies to parts of the country is unlikely in the immediate term. Mansour warned that the hunger-belt, stretching from the northwestern province of Badghis to Badakhshan in the northeast, remained a priority for food aid. Two million people there would run out of food by December, with 400,000 of this number expected to exhaust their supplies even sooner, he said. A spokesman for Oxfam International, Alex Renton, told IRIN that it had managed to transport 300 mt into drought-affected Faryab Province in the northwest. The agency was negotiating with the Iranian and Turkmen authorities to deliver a further 5,000 mt into the region, he said. Based on conversations with Oxfam national staff in Afghanistan, Renton said between 80 percent and 100 percent of NGO national staff appeared willing to work, with the exception of Kabul and Kandahar, where available staff had been reduced to 50 percent. Although he welcomed coalition airdrops of food rations and medicines, Renton expressed concern that random food drops could increase the incidence of mine injuries among civilians. So far, aid workers relocated to Pakistan have received little or no information on the situation in Afghanistan, other than second-hand reports that streets in Kabul were empty and roads blocked by Taliban forces. "I hope that we do not see a flow of refugees," said Renton, referring to a possible fresh exodus of Afghans into Pakistan. Potential for backlash A related concern outlined in the UN’s contingency planning is its ability to continue aid operations in Pakistan, given the potential of a backlash from minority religious extremist groups with links to the Taliban. Foreign journalists in Quetta, capital of the southwestern province of Baluchistan, were ordered on Sunday to remain in their hotels, under Pakistani military protection, while foreign diplomats and aid workers in the capital, Islamabad, were advised to stay at home for 48 hours. Although Islamabad remains calm, media reports said anti-US demonstrations in Quetta had been countered by a strong police presence and tear gas. An NGO worker confirmed to IRIN that local Pashtun religious leaders had also been gathering in the town of Hangu, 100 km southwest of Peshawar, capital of the North West Frontier Province. Local sources said that with three large madrasahs - Koranic schools - the area was regarded as a stronghold of religious groups sympathetic to the Taliban. Meanwhile, President Pervez Musharraf told journalists on Monday that Pakistan had taken the decision to be part of the world community and coalition to fight terrorism. As such, Pakistan was providing the military coalition with intelligence, airspace and logistical support. "I know that [the] people of Pakistan are with my government. I have interacted with all cross-sections of public opinion in Pakistan," he said. Musharraf said he hoped the military operation against the Taliban and terrorist camps would be "short, targeted and not entail collateral damage". "It should be swiftly followed by a broad-based political structure that reflects the demographic differences of Afghanistan," Musharaf said, adding that a major rehabilitation effort for Afghanistan was needed as soon as possible to bring normalcy to Afghanistan.