South remains calm

"Local authorities seem relaxed about the security situation in the south, partly because there were no large-scale IMU [Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan] incursions this year," Bruno de Cordier, the UN field coordinator in southern Kyrgyzstan, told IRIN on 12 October. Known as the soft underbelly of Kyrgyzstan, the southern region of Osh is calm despite concerns over possible attacks by Islamic groups, and refugee influxes from neighbouring countries. The IMU is an underground armed group in the Ferghana Valley promoting a strict Islamic regime to replace the governments of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. In 1999, it conducted an armed incursion into Uzbekistan, in the process crossing the Kyrgyz part of the Ferghana Valley at Batken, in the southeast of the Osh region. Kyrgyzstan’s first experience of terrorism - locally referred to as the "Batken events" - traumatised the population in the south, already affected by ethnic tension between the Kyrgyz minority and the Uzbek majority. "People in Batken are very quiet, they don’t even pay attention to the helicopters constantly flying over the city," Dr Lyudmila Pachaevna, the coordinator of the Bishkek medical care centre for refugees, told IRIN on 15 October, after an inspection visit to Osh and Batken. The Kyrgyz government insists that the security situation is now fully under control, and threats to the country no longer exist. However, refugee influxes are often mentioned as a potential destabilising factor of instability in the south, where Kyrgyzstan borders on Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. "What people in Batken and Osh do fear, though, is an influx of refugees. During the IMU incursions in 1999, for instance, the 7,800 or so IDPs [internally displaced persons] would have become problematic had the crisis lasted longer than three months. So there will certainly be a problem in [the] case of thousands of refugees coming in," de Cordier said. Refugees entering southern Kyrgyzstan could be Tajiks and ethnic Kyrgyz from Tajikistan fleeing poverty, drought, and from a possible spillover arising from events in northern Afghanistan. If action is undertaken by the Taliban or IMU in Uzbekistan, there could also be an influx from that country. There are currently about 3,000 refugees in the Osh region, mostly ethnic Kyrgyz and a few Tajiks from Tajikistan. "It is very difficult to define the whereabouts of refugees in the south. They migrate internally in search of arable land and water, and are very disseminated. They also move back and forth across the border with Tajikistan. Our doctors have noticed that refugees volunteering for repatriation to Tajikistan frequently return to Kyrgyzstan after some time," Pachaevna said. The Kyrgyz government has organised several repatriation programmes in coordination with UNHCR for ethnic Kyrgyz and Tajiks willing to return to Tajikistan. "Refugees have realised their life in Osh is worse - most of them still have no papers. We have witnessed several families coming back to Tajikistan," Nathalie Magnard, project coordinator for French NGO Acted, told IRIN on 12 October. Acted operates in Osh, and across the border in the Tajik Pamir, where 16,000 ethnic Kyrgyz live in the northeastern district of Murghab on the border with China. "Only a major crisis, such as a new civil war in Tajikistan, would bring thousands of refugees to Osh. But for now, the situation on both sides of the border remains calm," Magnard said.