Brahimi evaluates peace prospects

The Secretary-General's personal envoy to Afghanistan, Lakhdar Brahimi, has been tasked to find out how Afghans could, once and for all, bring peace and stability to their war-torn country. Despite 20 years of continuous war, endless human rights violations, a deepening humanitarian crisis and an ongoing military campaign, experts believe there is now genuine international commitment to find a viable solution. While acknowledging that this commitment represents an opportunity for peace, Brahimi has maintained that Afghanistan belongs to Afghans, and that his priority is to solicit their views first. Since his arrival in Pakistan on Sunday, Brahimi has been in a listening mode. He has already met separately with Gen Pervez Musharraf, the Pakistani president, and Pir Sayed Ahmad Gailani, a former mujahidin commander who organised a meeting of Afghan tribal elders in Peshawar last week. Working lunches with Afghan individuals and groups have also given Brahimi a chance to hear different views on achieving lasting peace in the country. Speaking on behalf of the special envoy, the director of the UN Information Centre in Pakistan, Eric Falt, explained that it was still early days. "One of the key aspects at present is that we don't see a formula emerging yet where those who are holding the gun will stop holding the rest of the country hostage," said Falt, relaying a quote from Brahimi on Tuesday. More details are expected on Thursday evening, when Brahimi addresses a news conference in Islamabad. It will also be his first opportunity to answer questions on a political plan for Afghanistan's future. Whether such a plan will have emerged by then is unclear. In the meantime, analysts maintain that the former Afghan king, Mohammad Zahir Shah, is likely to remain central to the peace process and a key figure in uniting disparate Afghan groups. Senior Pakistani officials have said there are strong indications that the former king may travel to Pakistan soon provided that the Taliban begin losing ground militarily. The aim of his journey will be to first hold a Jirga (meeting) with important tribal leaders from Afghanistan in preparation for a larger Loya Jirgah, or supreme national tribal assembly. "The centrepiece of a political strategy has to be the inclusion of the king. Right now, while Brahimi is talking to various people to chart out a political strategy, the king is only waiting for an opportunity if there's a military defeat [of the Taliban]," a senior Pakistani government official told IRIN. While Brahimi was seeking agreement from different Afghan groups on the structure of a new government, the king would hopefully keep these groups unified, he added. Observers note that the military campaign against the Taliban and Al-Qaeda (Al-Qa'idah) network will do much to determine a political outcome in Afghanistan. Almost four weeks after the US attacks began, the Taliban and Al-Qaeda network appear to be demonstrating their resilience, while their leadership remains in hiding. On the political front, there are signs that Pakistan, a close supporter of the Taliban before the 11 September attacks in the US, may be on the way to discarding the idea of including moderate Taliban officials in a future Afghan government. A Pakistani foreign ministry statement released after a meeting between Brahimi and Musharraf referred to an agreement to move towards the creation of a broad-based government, but made no reference to including any member of the Taliban. These initial signs of a possible change follow a strong statement from Russia last week, opposing the involvement of the Taliban in any future government. The Russian ambassador to Tajikistan, Maksim Peshkov, told IRIN in Dushanbe that his government held the view that there were no Taliban moderates. Peshkov maintained that a distinction should be made between the Taliban and people of Pashtun ethnic origin, whose involvement was crucial to any future broad-based government. Other Central Asian countries bordering Afghanistan and Iran were unanimous in opposing the presence of any of the Taliban in a future government. Tajikistan's deputy foreign minister, Abdunabi Sattorzoda, said last week that it was "absurd" to seek out a moderate Taliban group, on the basis that "their regime have turned Afghanistan into the centre of international terrorism". A senior Western diplomat in Islamabad acknowledged that Pakistan appeared to be making a tactical shift. "It's hard to imagine that Pakistan would ever turn away from trying to include some of these people in a new government, but it's possible that Pakistan may not speak of a moderate Taliban," he said.