Poor rains in south cause for concern

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) says it is increasingly concerned about the poor performance of the rains in southern Mozambique, especially in Maputo province. "After two consecutive drought years, the season looked like it was off to a good start, but initial rains did not last, and now crop losses are expected. The total rainfall in Maputo from 1 October - 10 December 2003 was only 30 percent of normal (30 years average)," FEWS NET's latest report said. In the northwest province of Tete, satellite imagery shows vegetation is much lower than normal due to poor rains and high temperatures. "Although it is still early enough for the season to improve in Tete, conditions must be monitored closely after two consecutive drought years," the FEWS NET update said. In the more remote areas of Maputo and southern Gaza provinces, spot assessments have revealed the loss of most of the first planting and severe water stress on existing vegetation, FEWS NET noted. However, the report pointed out that most households in Maputo and southern Gaza, especially around the main cities, employ a wide variety of coping strategies, such as off-farm employment, temporary migration and informal trade. Crop production is not the sole determinant of food security, but rather is complementary to other sources. Preliminary findings of Vulnerability Analysis Committee (VAC) visits to four provinces affected by drought last year, which included Maputo and Tete, found a slight improvement in food security. The overall forecast for the current season remains positive, especially in the previously drought-hit provinces of Gaza and Inhambane. The VAC concluded that the 255,000 people found to be "at-risk" of food insecurity in May/June 2003 will not require assistance, and the 659,000 people identified by the VAC as "extremely food insecure" will be able to preserve their food security with the help of ongoing support programmes until the next harvest in March/April 2004. The VAC, however, recommended "a close monitoring of the rainy season development, as it is a critical factor for the performance of already planted crops and for the food security outlook", FEWS NET said.