Conflict, floods and the prospect of animal disease compound crisis in southern river valley

A serious humanitarian crisis in Somalia's Lower Juba region could escalate unless immediate steps are taken to mitigate the effects of multiple shocks on the pastoralists and agro-pastoralists living there, an early warning agency warned.

Months of drought followed by heavy flooding in late 2006 created the crisis, but ongoing conflict in southern Somalia and the suspected spread of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) from Kenya could exacerbate the situation, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS Net) said.

"An immediate increase in emergency assistance and protection is urgently needed to prevent the already serious humanitarian crisis from worsening," the agency said in a report on Tuesday.

The conflict, between the Ethiopian-backed Somali transitional government and the remnants of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), in addition to RVF, had driven "pastoral and agro-pastoral districts of the Lower Juba region, especially in Afmadow and Badhadhe districts, into a deeper crisis", it added.

Multiple shocks, including low-intensity conflict over the past 16 years, the 2005-2006 drought, crop failure in mid-2006 and the floods "have stretched the region's inhabitants to breaking point", and driven many to refugee camps in Kenya.

FEWS Net noted that floods and the intensification of the conflict between the UIC and the government, in particular, had "exacerbated previous shocks at a critical time in the minor harvest season, eliminating crucial opportunities for casual labour and driving farmers from their land during the first climatically favourable season for agro-pastoralists in years".

RVF, a viral disease that affects domestic animals and humans, has killed scores in neighbouring Kenya. Mahamud Haji Hassan Jabra, an epidemiologist with the Somali Animal Health Service Project, said reports of animal abortions – a key indicator of the disease - had been received from the area.

Samples taken from affected livestock had yet to be tested. "We have been unable to get the samples into Kenya for testing," he told IRIN on Wednesday.

Kenya closed its border with Somalia on 26 December, citing security concerns due to the conflict. It also banned all trade in and slaughter of livestock in districts affected by the fever, which also border southern Somalia.

Jabra said two Somali men who had shown symptoms of RVF had been taken to a Kenyan hospital where one tested positive. However, the man came from Dobley, a town close to the border and could have contracted the disease in Kenya.

"We cannot yet conclude that RVF has spread into Somalia until we have carried out more conclusive tests," he added.

The closure of the border also restricted aid agencies from gaining access to vulnerable asylum seekers, making emergency response difficult. "The Kenyan-Somali border remains closed, so overland transport of humanitarian supplies from Kenya is either very infrequent, unpredictable or impossible," according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

Access by air was also difficult because Kismayo airport, the hub for air access to Lower Juba, had remained closed to humanitarian flights due to military operations there. "While we have sought assurances of safe passage for flights into Kismayo, these assurances have not been forthcoming," OCHA said.

FEWS Net said civilians fleeing the fighting had been prevented from crossing the border into Kenya. In Dobley, 18km from the border, aid agencies estimate that 7,000 civilians from different parts of southern Somalia are living rough and urgently require food, medicine, water and shelter.

Meanwhile, three mortar bombs landed on Mogadishu International Airport in the capital, at around noon on Wednesday, wounding three people.

The attacks came as a second contingent of Ethiopian troops left Mogadishu. The Ethiopians, who helped the transitional government stop the UIC from controlling much of Somalia, are due to be replaced by an African peacekeeping force.

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