Time to reassess mediation in Africa, says analyst

South Africa's attempts to solve the crisis in Cote d'Ivoire appear to be unravelling, which could leave President Thabo Mbeki with less of an appetite for engaging in conflict resolution in Africa, argues international affairs analyst John Stremlau. Mbeki, who was given a mandate by the African Union (AU) to mediate between Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo, opposition political parties and rebel leaders controlling the northern half of the former French colony, may need to "reassess how much responsibility he can take for the continents problems". Last Saturday, after heavy criticism of Mbeki's alleged bias toward Gbagbo, AU chair Nigerian President Olusegan Obasanjo said South Africa's mandate to mediate in Cote d'Ivoire would be reviewed by the organisation's Peace and Security Council. But unconfirmed media reports on Tuesday quoted diplomatic sources as saying the AU had withdrawn Mbeki's mandate - a decision that would be made public after a summit of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to be held in Abuja before the end of September. South African government officials could not confirm these reports. Stremlau told IRIN that because South Africa's mediation efforts had been successful in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Burundi, "there is the temptation to be drawn into other initiatives as a good continental citizen". "But perhaps a lack of understanding of the local complexities in the former French colony - where the French role in Cote d'Ivoire is difficult to fathom, not to mention the role of the big neighbour, Nigeria - made it difficult for South Africa to grab the correct levers of influence," he observed. "With the difficulty of getting the disarmament process underway ... holding elections [initially set to be held by 30 October] is perhaps out of reach," Stremlau noted. Gbagbo has reportedly called for fresh talks, mediated by South Africa, in a bid to come up with a new date for a national election in Cote d'Ivoire. But Reuters reported that a rebel leader Guillaume Soro, speaking in Niger after meeting its president and current head of ECOWAS, Tandja Mamadou, had restated the view that South African mediation efforts had failed. "We think the case of Ivory Coast should be dealt with at a [West African] regional level first of all, because we are neighbours, we are brothers, we understand each others' problems," Soro was quoted as saying. Stremlau, the head of international relations at the University of Witswatersrand, said the apparent failure of the attempt to broker a resolution to the crisis should "not discourage South Africa from being a constructive peacemaker on the continent - but this may test the limits of its reach". "It is a reminder, perhaps, of the need for close coordination between the European Union and South Africa in undertaking a peace initiative of this kind," he added. The country had "worked very much in tandem with the United States in southern Sudan", and one of the lessons out of Cote d'Ivoire was "the need to have more leverage". Another impediment to successful mediation was the recalcitrance of the parties involved. "If you've got good intelligence about the local dynamics, and if they [belligerents] are exhausted and willing to tip towards peace, then fine; but if positions are still hard and fast then ... I suppose it's better to have tried than not tried at all," he commented. South Africa in general and "Mbeki in particular are big enough to take lessons from this and move on and do better next time", Stremlau concluded.