MRC actuarial model finds rocketing AIDS death toll

Official government statistics underestimated AIDS deaths by as much as two-thirds, researchers have found. A study by South Africa's Medical Research Council (MRC) revealed that the total number of deaths rose dramatically between 1996 and 2001, "mainly a result of an increase in mortality related to HIV," the Sunday Times reported. Using an actuarial model, the MRC study, released this weekend ahead of the 'Cause of Death' report by Statistics South Africa (StatsSA), concluded that the death toll had soared by 43 percent between 1996 and 2001. StatsSA's 2002 'Cause of Death' survey found that only 8.7 percent of deaths in the country could be attributed to the disease, attracting criticism from medical researchers and AIDS activists for underestimating the scale of the pandemic.