Review of 2004

Little has changed in Kyrgyzstan's political life over the past year. A local analyst told IRIN that it was like a temporary calm ahead of major events, including both parliamentary and presidential elections, scheduled for 2005. While the country's fragmented opposition made timid efforts to consolidate, it continued to lack mass popular appeal. Once praised as an island of democracy in Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan continued to emulate its more authoritarian neighbours by clamping down on opposition groups, independent media and rights activists. Following the 2003 events in Georgia and recent developments in Ukraine the Kyrgyz government has become steadily more and more repressive and less tolerant of criticism, Michael Hall, an analyst with the International Crisis Group (ICG), told IRIN from the Tajik capital, Dushanbe. "It is based on President Askar Akaev's fears of a very similar thing happening in his own country," he said. The economy grew by some seven percent in 2004 and inflation stood at around three percent, allowing 150,000 Kyrgyz to escape the poverty trap. However, more than 40 percent of the country's 5 million inhabitants live below the national poverty line, according to the UNDP figures. In 2004, Kyrgyzstan suffered an unprecedented growth in the number of natural disasters, including landslides, avalanches and floods. "The past year was a difficult one, the trend of growth in the number of natural disaster remained and even further grew through the whole year," Emil Akmatov, a spokesman for the Kyrgyz Ministry of Emergency Situations (MES), told IRIN from the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek. According to the MES, 168 emergency situations and incidents, both natural and man-made, were registered over the past year in Kyrgyzstan, killing over 100 people and injuring scores more. "That means that there were incidents almost every other day," Akmatov explained. A landslide ripped through the Budalyk village in southern Kyrgyzstan in April, killing 33 people and injuring 11. In southern Karasuu district five children were killed by a landslide in the Kattataldyk area when they were going to school. Emergency officials cite global warming as one of the key factors contributing to the high number of natural disasters. "Many experts note that glaciers in the high mountain areas are shrinking and it is a very worrisome sign. It is the result of global warming and the ecological catastrophe in the Aral Sea area," Akmatov said. Those factors bring heavy rains, which coupled with tremors, activate landslide processes in the country. According to the Kyrgyz meteorological service, the level of precipitation in the autumn of 2004 in most of regions was between 240 and 270 percent of normal levels. THE YEAR AHEAD Many analysts suggest that the upcoming parliamentary elections in February and, in particular the presidential polls in October, will play a crucial role in shaping the country's future and prospects for democracy in the region. "Kyrgyzstan will be the country to watch because of the elections there," ICG's Hall said. "2005 is going to be an historic one for Kyrgyzstan," Edil Baisalov, head of the Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society, a local NGO, told IRIN from Bishkek. "The country has reached a certain point in its development when the first president is leaving his post. We should see a peaceful and constitutional transfer of power to a new leader who will be elected by a popular vote through the process of fair, transparent and democratic elections. This will be a key event in Kyrgyzstan's contemporary history." But a Georgian or Ukrainian-style "revolution" is unlikely to happen in Kyrgyzstan, observers say. Many local observers say that much will depend on how these elections go in 2005. If they fail to be free and fair, then the possibility for popular protest is there, Hall maintained. In terms of emergency preparedness, the coming year is going to be difficult. "The experts at the monitoring department [of MES]] expect 2005 to be a tough year. Landslide activity is expected to rise in the spring and summer in the south of the country, especially in the Karasuu, Karakulja, Uzgen and Alay districts. This concerns us a lot," Akmatov said. Moreover, local seismologists are warning that seismic activity is likely to rise in Kyrgyzstan and don't exclude the possibility of a very strong earthquake in the mountainous country in the next one to three years. Some experts say that this earthquake could measure up to 12 points on the Richter scale.