South African 'quiet diplomacy' tested by recent events

Recent events may test South African President Thabo Mbeki's 'quiet diplomacy' approach towards neighbouring Zimbabwe, analysts have told IRIN. News of the arrest of an alleged South African intelligence agent in Zimbabwe; more hard-line pronouncements from the United States regarding Zimbabwe; and recent comments by South Africa's ruling African National Congress (ANC), urging the opening of 'democratic space' in the country, have all occurred in the space of three weeks. These developments, analysts said, could change the dynamics of South Africa's engagement with Zimbabwe's ruling ZANU-PF party over how best to solve the ongoing political and economic crisis. In mid-January reports surfaced that a South African man, allegedly a spy cultivating a network of ZANU-PF MPs and officials, had been arrested in Zimbabwe last year. His reputed network included Phillip Chiyangwa, a ZANU-PF MP and Mashonaland West provincial chairperson, who is also a nephew of President Robert Mugabe, and Itai Marchi, the ZANU-PF director of external affairs. Both have also been arrested. South African officials have declined to comment on the alleged spying activities in Zimbabwe. ANC secretary-general Kgalema Motlanthe expressed concern this week that the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), Zimbabwe's main opposition party, still required permission to hold public meetings. "The MDC is a party that participates in parliament and it controls several municipalities. This position impairs their ability to interact with their constituencies," Motlanthe pointed out. During her senate confirmation hearings this week, US secretary of state designate Condoleezza Rice labelled Zimbabwe "an outpost of tyranny", signalling continuance of the Bush administration's hard-line attitude towards Mugabe's government. Commenting on Rice's statements, professor John Stremlau, head of the department of international relations at South Africa's University of the Witwatersrand, told IRIN that the US would continue to voice "rhetoric" but at the same time, "Bush's policy has been to follow Mbeki's lead. In terms of policy and action, I don't expect any radical changes in Bush's second administration," said Stremlau. He described the engagement of South Africa and the US with Zimbabwe as 'good cop, bad cop' - "South Africa will not be vocal, but the Bush administration will. [Both countries] have a strategic convergence on Zimbabwe: it does not suit South Africa's purposes to have Zimbabwe as the counterpoint to all that the AU [African Union] and NEPAD [New Partnership for Africa's Development] stand for," Stremlau added. Regarding the arrest of the alleged South African spy and Motlanthe's statements, Stremlau said that "it is certainly the case that South Africa has every reason to be impatient, concerned and frustrated - Mugabe does not appear to have lived up to his understandings with Mbeki". Chris Maroleng, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, told IRIN that "in terms of the fallout for South African foreign policy, [these developments] now place South Africa in a very difficult position". Some analysts have alleged that South Africa's Zimbabwe policy has been aimed at transforming ZANU-PF from within, through the emergence of a reform-minded leadership. "I think, when you look at the recent arrest of an intelligence operative in Zimbabwe, and recent developments in terms of ZANU-PF succession dynamics, linkages can be made between factions in ZANU and the trajectory of South African foreign policy: South Africa was trying to create change from within ZANU, and was attempting to gather information on possible threats and opportunities within ZANU," Maroleng said. Faction fighting in ZANU-PF intensified ahead of the party's congress in December 2004, at which Joyce Mujuru was chosen as Mugabe's vice-president and potential successor. Six provincial chairpersons were suspended from the party after it emerged that they had attended a meeting to back parliamentary speaker Emmerson Mnangagwa, and two ministers who attended the gathering were also barred from contesting the party's primary elections for parliamentary candidates. The South African government has come under increasing pressure from its political partners, who favour more robust engagement with Zimbabwe, especially concerning issues of governance and human rights, ahead of the country's March parliamentary poll. Zimbabwe's political crisis dates from legislative elections in 2000 and a presidential ballot in 2002 which most international observers said were marred by violence and irregularities. Maroleng pointed out that "pressure from ANC alliance partners COSATU [Congress of South African Trade Unions] and the SACP [South African Communist Party]" meant Motlanthe's statement regarding the MDC had become a necessity. COSATU has said it will send a second mission to assess the situation in Zimbabwe, after its first delegation was deported for involving itself in the internal affairs of the country. Noting the union's plans, Motlanthe was quoted as saying: "COSATU can send a fact-finding mission every other week if they want, but you cannot just defy the laws of the country you are visiting." The ANC disapproved of COSATU's first mission, questioning its motives, which led to a war of words over the government's policy of 'quiet diplomacy'. While news reports said Mbeki would soon lead a Southern African Development Community (SADC) mission to Zimbabwe, his office said no such trip was diarised. But Maroleng remarked that, "given the allegation of spying, the recent developments would make it very difficult for South African authorities to engage in a meaningful way with their [Zimbabwean] counterparts".