Will the UN Security Council impose a second wave of sanctions?

Wednesday is the day the United Nations Security Council threatened to impose a second wave of sanctions on anyone obstructing Cote d'Ivoire's peace process. But will the travel bans and asset freezes be forthcoming? Algerian ambassador Abdallah Baali, the Security Council president for December, seemed to hint on Monday that the UN might wait and give a recent peace drive by South African President Thabo Mbeki time to bear fruit. "We have decided to give President Mbeki's facilitation efforts a chance to be completed before doing anything else," he was quoted as saying by several news agencies following a closed-door meeting of the 15-nation council. After Ivorian troops shattered an 18-month ceasefire at the beginning of November, the UN slapped a year-long arms embargo on the West African nation. It also warned that further measures would swing into action against certain individuals on 15 December unless progress was made to solve the conflict. Civil war in Cote d'Ivoire erupted in September 2002 when rebels launched an insurgency, splitting the country into a government-run south and a rebel-held north. Mbeki was sent in as a peacemaker by the African Union, and last week after a five-day visit, he wrangled promises out of all parties to revive a French-brokered peace agreement from 2003, known as Linas-Marcoussis. He said Cote d'Ivoire's government, opposition and the New Forces rebels had agreed that political reforms should be passed, disarmament should begin, the government of national reconciliation should return to work and security should be restored to the West African nation. Although similar pledges have been made at a myriad of previous summits, analysts say that the UN is unlikely to weigh in with further penalties just yet, especially given the fact that the AU's own Peace and Security Council has postponed its meeting on Cote d'Ivoire's troubles by a month to 10 January. "I think that it's reasonable not to expect the UN Security Council to take any monumental decision that would undermine Mbeki's mediation," explained Mike McGovern, the West Africa project director for the influential think tank, the International Crisis Group. "The fact that the AU has put off its meeting until January means there's going to be a lot of pressure on the UN to hold fire," McGovern added. The UN has also not yet appointed a new Special Representative for Cote d'Ivoire following the resignation of Albert Tevoedjre. But one western diplomat, who attended Mbeki’s mediation as a representative of the European Union, did not rule out additional sanctions this week. "We actually do expect a vote for additional sanctions because the Security Council does not have the impression that the [peace process] is advancing," he told IRIN by phone. "We believe that there has to be pressure exerted on all parties in Ivory Coast. There is no point in endless talks if there is no political goodwill.” The UN Security Council is expected to issue a statement formally announcing its decision on Wednesday or Thursday. Marches banned, reforms sent to parliament Since Mbeki's much-vaunted mediation, there have been some small signs of progress. Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo has banned public marches for three months. The ban was imposed last week just before some of his more militant supporters, the Young Patriots, were due to take to the streets to demand that former colonial power France withdraw its 5,000 peacekeeping troops.

President Laurent Gbagbo

Tensions between Paris and Abidjan plunged to a new low following the government's abortive offensive on the north in November. Nine French soldiers were killed in one of the bombing raids, and France retaliated by destroying virtually the whole Ivorian airforce. Pro-Gbagbo supporters looted and torched their way through Abidjan and thousands of expatriates fled in fear. Gbagbo has also finally sent parliament a draft amendment of the highly controversial Article 35, which at the moment requires presidential candidates to have two Ivorian parents. The constitution needs to be changed if opposition leader Alassane Ouattara, who draws most of his support from the north and was barred from running against Gbagbo in the 2000 elections, is to participate in polls scheduled for October 2005.      However even if parliament rubber-stamps a new Article 35, it is unlikely to come into effect immediately. Last week, Gbagbo said that he still wants to organise a nation-wide referendum on the issue. And according to one western diplomat, the new-found speed with which parliament is now considering changes to the constitution will not be enough to convince the UN Security Council to withhold sanctions. “It’s not a question of when they are being discussed, but how they are being discussed,” he told IRIN. Meanwhile the rebels have just wrapped up a mini-summit in their central stronghold of Bouake where they were discussing a response to Mbeki's mediation efforts, which envisage them handing in their weapons although no date has yet been announced. Rebel spokesman Sidiki Konate said representatives would shortly be heading to South Africa to present the group's ideas on how to make sure the peace process worked. "We have agreed a document which outlines the New Forces' solutions as to how to dynamically revive the peace process, whose principal goal is a return to lasting peace through free and transparent elections, that are open to everyone," Konate said, declining to give further details.