All sides pledge commitment to peace process again, but will anything change?

South African President Thabo Mbeki ended his mediation in Cote d'Ivoire having wrangled promises from all sides to revive the flagging peace process. But the jury is out on whether his efforts will bear fruit, or whether the government and the rebels will backslide as before with each camp blaming the other. Mbeki, sent in as peacekeeper by the African Union to stop Cote d'Ivoire slipping back into full-scale civil war, said the parties had agreed political reforms should be passed, weapons should start being handed in, the government of national reconciliation should return to work and security should be restored to the streets of the main city, Abidjan. "We've agreed with everybody on all of these matters," Mbeki told a press conference at the end of his five-day mission on Monday. "Therefore specific programmes must be carried out." But the South African -- whose delegation included officials from United Nations, European Union, World Bank and African bodies -- was cagey about announcing deadlines for moving the world's top cocoa producer back to peace. "I am sure that by the end of this week, we will have some clarity as to what is possible with regard to specific timeframes," he said. Dates for action have been repeatedly ignored by both sides in the conflict, which erupted in September 2002 with a failed coup attempt on Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo. Since then Cote d'Ivoire has been split into a government-controlled south and a rebel-held north. A much-trumpeted pan-African summit in the Ghanaian capital, Accra in July yielded pledges that the government would pass political reforms by the end of the September and the rebels would start disarming in mid-October but both dates came and went without any progress. At the beginning of November the government broke the political stalemate in dramatic fashion, smashing an 18-month ceasefire and launching a military offensive on the north. Riots broke out on the streets of Abidjan, thousands of expatriates fled what was once West Africa's success story and the international community scurried to douse the flames. On his second trip to the troubled country in two months, Mbeki stressed on Monday that the basis for peace remained a French-brokered peace accord from 2003, known as Linas-Marcoussis -- something for which Gbagbo has never disguised his dislike. "Mbeki's programme is one that we already know. There's no difference. We can cogitate as much as we want but we will always come back to Marcoussis because there's nothing better," a top West African diplomat told IRIN on Tuesday. Scepticism strong But scepticism remains about whether the government and the rebels will actually keep their sides of the bargain this time around -- something even Mbeki acknowledged. "I'm absolutely certain there is mistrust," he said. "If there wasn't mistrust, it would mean there had been no conflict, but I'm quite sure that mistrust will diminish as people see that everybody's sticking to their word."

The world's top cocoa producer has been split in two for the past 27 months

And the West African diplomat agreed. "We'll go forward with uncertainty until it's all over," he said. "But the pressure on the Ivorian parties has never before reached the level it is at today." Analysts say Gbagbo's abortive assault on the north highlighted the limits of his army, and emphasised his isolation on the world stage as both the African Union and fellow Francophone nations came out against the attack. France's retaliatory destruction of the Ivorian airforce after nine of its peacekeepers were killed in a raid was a further blow to the president, and the United Nations Security Council last month imposed an arms embargo on Cote d'Ivoire and threatened to slap travel bans and asset freezes on 15 December on anyone obstructing the peace process. But will these mounting pressures help chip away at the political deadlock that has crippled Cote d'Ivoire? "Nothing concrete!" was the headline verdict of independent Abidjan daily Soir-Info. "If it is too early to say the mediation talks by Mbeki have been a failure, it should also be said that the 'agreements' he obtained are far from saving the country," it said in an editorial inside. The one tangible measure to come out of Mbeki's mediation so far concerns the highly controversial Article 35 -- the constitutional clause that dates from 2000 and prevents people running for the presidency unless they have two Ivorian parents. Alassane Ouattara, the popular opposition candidate who draws most of his support from the mainly-Muslim north, was barred from running against Gbagbo in the 2000 elections and will be missing from the ballot sheet again in elections scheduled for October 2005 unless the constitution is changed. Referendum or not? Over the weekend Gbagbo said he would finally send a draft amendment to parliament, where it would discussed as early as January. But he has made no secret of the fact that he wants a referendum to be held on the issue, which can only happen when the rebels have disarmed and the country is reunified. Mbeki would not say on Monday whether Gbagbo had changed his mind about the referendum. The South African also gave no details on the other crunch issue -- the disarmament of the rebels. He declined to say how and when the process would begin. On his five-day mission, Mbeki met with the president, the prime minister, parliament heads and opposition leaders in Abidjan. But he also travelled to the rebel-held city of Bouake on Sunday, the first head of state to visit since the beginning of the crisis. In scenes mirroring his arrival in Abidjan, thousands of people lined the streets to give Mbeki a warm welcome although this time they chanted "We don't want Gbagbo" and brandished wooden placards demanding he stand down. The South African president, who has helped bring peace to Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo, said he expected to return to Cote d'Ivoire regularly to ensure all parties kept their promises.

UN Special Representative Albert Tevoedjre has announced his resignation

The African Union, who mandated Mbeki, meanwhile announced that its Peace and Security Council would delay their meeting on the Cote d'Ivoire crisis from 10 December to 10 January to allow him to continue his peace efforts. One person who won't be sticking around to see if Mbeki's mediation achieves hard and fast results is the UN Special Representative to Cote d'Ivoire, Albert Tevoedjre, who announced his resignation on Monday. The 75-year-old from Benin, who had been repeatedly criticised by both the government and rebels, said his age had played a part in his decision but so had the situation, particularly the shattering of the ceasefire on 4 November. "Everything that we have done until now was challenged," Tevoedjre, who was appointed in February 2003, told IRIN. "There has to be more goodwill and especially more good faith on all sides."