Winter maize harvest in doubt

Malawi's winter harvest should ordinarily ease the country's existing food shortage, but there is concern that the new crop could be affected by poor summer rains. The cultivation of winter crops starts soon after the main summer crop has been harvested, usually around July, and takes place in areas where there is residual moisture after the end of the rainy season, or farmers have access to irrigation facilities. Due to a poor summer harvest it is estimated that up to 1.6 million people will require food assistance up to March 2005, but aid agencies have noted that a bumper winter harvest could narrow the existing food gap. "In the past few years, the government of Malawi has been encouraging winter crop production through various means, and this has resulted in a steady production increase," the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) said in its latest country report. However, the 2003/04 rainfall "was significantly worse than that of 2002/03, especially in the winter maize producing areas", FEWS NET noted. "This poor rainfall would have resulted in relatively less residual moisture and water availability, necessary preconditions for winter crop production. The general expectation is that winter crop production should be lower than last season, especially in the southern region, which was the most hit by the dry spells and shortness of the rainfall season." The National Statistics Office (NSO) has forecast a winter maize harvest of around 225,000 mt, slightly higher than the previous year's 224,000 mt. However, FEWS NET said the NSO forecast was questionable, given the poor rainfall this year. "Although the coming winter harvest - around October to December - would help improve the aggregate national food availability situation, the improvements for smallholders in the southern region will be short-lived, and a majority of the households will continue to rely on the markets for food," FEWS NET commented. But the rising cost of staples has limited household access to food. "Prices have already started to rise, consistent with predictions of a worse than normal [harvest] year ... continued prices increases will adversely affect households' ability to purchase food," the report warned. It will take an estimated 56,000 mt to 83,000 mt of emergency food aid to assist the rising number of households in need until the next harvest, FEWS NET forecast.