Regional cereal production down

Overall cereal production in Southern Africa this agricultural season had declined, but some countries have enjoyed increased yields, according to the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO). The production of maize, a staple crop in the region, decreased by 9 percent from the previous year, to 14 million mt, reflecting delayed, erratic and inadequate rainfall during the first half of the 2003/04 season in several countries, FAO said in a press release on Tuesday. Favourable rains in Angola boosted cereal output to 13,000 mt, up 9 percent from last year and 27 percent over the previous five-year average. The picture in Madagascar, Mozambique, Namibia and Zambia was also generally positive. In Zambia, the 2004 maize crop was forecast to reach a record 1.4 million mt, mainly due to good weather and the government's assistance packages to small-scale farmers. In Mozambique maize output increased substantially reflecting a recovery of production in the southern provinces. Mozambique's ministry of agriculture reported that good rains earlier this year not only facilitated the recovery of some drought-resilient crops, such as cassava, sweet potatoes and cowpeas, but also allowed for new plantings of maize, rice and beans, which had been developing reasonably well due to continued favourable growing conditions. There were, however, concerns over a shortfall in cereal output in Lesotho, Malawi, South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe. "Lesotho continues to reel from the effects of drought. Its estimated 2004 cereal production is less than half of last year's, necessitating emergency food assistance to large numbers of people," FAO said. Some 1.26 million people in the south and some central regions of Malawi will require food aid because of the down-turn in production, FAO said. Cereal production in Zimbabwe was estimated at just over 950,000 mt. FAO noted that a population level of 11.9 million would mean that total cereal usage should be almost 2.35 million mt. "This implies a potentially large national cereal import requirement; nearly 1.3 million mt," the agency concluded. It attributed the poor harvest mainly to the below average and unevenly distributed rainfall in the important maize growing Mashonaland Provinces. Other factors included shortages of draught power, quality seeds, fertiliser, labour, and the difficulties faced by newly-resettled farmers. FAO, which was unable to complete a crop assessment mission along with the World Food programme this year, said an estimated 30 to 40 percent of Zimbabwean farmers might run out of food from their own production within two or three months (end of June or July). "The ongoing economic crisis, with inflation remaining at around 600 percent annually, will inflict further hardships on the poorer groups, including the urban unemployed and under-employed. Household members from these categories of population are likely to require assistance on an urgent basis," FAO said. A recently issued Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee (VAC) report indicated that 2.3 million rural people will not be able to cover their food needs in 2004/05. Late in 2003, the Zimbabwe VAC had also estimated that 2.5 million people in urban areas were food insecure. The government has, however, insisted that it expects a record maize crop of 2.4 million mt.