Far fewer small arms than prior estimates, says NGO

The number of small arms in sub-Sahara Africa is much lower than previously estimated, according to a new report from the Small Arms Survey presented on Tuesday in Nairobi, Kenya. The report, "The Small Arms Survey 2003: Development Denied", also found a downward trend in armed conflict in Africa that appeared to be reducing the demand for small arms. It said that attempts to resolve long-running wars in Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia and Sudan had contributed to this trend, as had a number of regional small arms agreements. "The revised figures provide a more accurate - and more promising - context for arms reduction and removal efforts in Africa by governments, NGOs and multilateral agencies," a statement from the Small Arms Survey said, noting that there were "likely no more than 30 million small arms in sub-Saharan Africa", according to their research. It said the vast majority of these guns were in civilian hands (79 percent), followed by the military (16 percent), police (3 percent) and insurgents (2 percent). Previous estimates commonly put the total figure at 100 million. The Small Arms Survey said that the availability and misuse of small arms in Africa had undermined the continent's development prospects, leading to thousands of deaths and injuries, and contributing to economic collapse, damaged or destroyed infrastructure, and the withdrawal of private investment. However, Peter Batchelor, the project director of the Small Arms Survey, said the new data suggested that the challenges of dealing with the proliferation of small arms in Africa might not be as overwhelming as previously thought. "This new estimate should renew confidence that the small arms problem in Africa can be brought under control through conventional means, such as increased regulation, strong enforcement and collection and destruction efforts," he said. Among other findings of the Small Arms Survey 2003 concerning sub-Saharan Africa: - Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda each has an estimated national stockpile of between 500,000 and one million small arms; - There are about 77,000 small arms in the hands of major West African insurgent groups; - The total number of illicit military-style guns is unlikely to surpass one million for all of sub-Saharan Africa, and may be considerably lower; - At least 10 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, including Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, have some domestic capacity to produce small arms and/or ammunition. Illicit production of small arms occurs in a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa, including Ghana and South Africa. "The Small Arms Survey 2003: Development Denied" is the third annual global analysis of small arms issues. An independent research project funded by 12 governments, the Small Arms Survey is a primary international source of public information on all aspects of small arms. The Small Arms Survey is located at the Graduate Institute of International Studies in Geneva, Switzerland. [For further information, go to www.smallarmssurvey.org]