Bumper grain crop forecast in Sahel (corrected)

The main crop forecasting body for the Sahel has predicted that grain production will be up to 20 percent higher this year following good rains throughout the region. The Interstate Committee to Combat Drought in the Sahel, which is usually known by its French acronym CILSS, estimated that grain production would be between 10.25 million and 13.7 million tonnes in the 2003/2004 agricultural year, providing favourable weather conditions. That compares with its final estimate of 11.5 million tonnes for 2002/2003. But the organisation, which monitors agriculture in the drought-prone savannah region that stretches from Senegal to Chad, said governments should take measures to prevent the entire crop hitting the market at once. Too much grain swamping the market at once would inevitably lead to a sharp fall in producer prices that would damage farm incomes, it warned. The organisation urged governments to provide credit to farmers to enable them to delay the sale of their crops, particularly in the main areas of grain production. CILSS also sounded a note of warning about food security in Chad following a recent influx of refugees into the country fleeing conflicts in the Central African Republic and Sudan's western province of Darfur. It said the arrival of an estimated 70,000 Sudanese refugees in eastern Chad and a further 41,000 from CAR in the south of the country, could lead to localised food shortages in those parts of the country. But overall, CILSS, which is based in Niamey, the capital of Niger, was upbeat in its first analysis of the harvest, which is already beginning in some parts of the Sahel and will continue until November. "If the good bio-physical conditions experienced since the beginning of the planting season are maintained, if pests are kept under control and if the rainy season finishes normally in the agricultural areas of the sub-region, grain production for the current year will be good," CILSS said in a statement following a meeting of agricultural experts from its nine member countries in Niamey last week. The rainy season began in June and is due to end in most of the Sahel by mid-October. CILSS estimated that in a best case scenario, production of millet, sorghum, maize rice and other cereals would reach 13.7 million tonnes in the current year, an improvement of nearly 20 percent on 2002/3. In a worst case scenario, it said, grain production might be only 10.25 million tonnes, 11 percent down on last year. Downside risks included the formation of desert locusts swarms in desert areas of Niger, Chad and Algeria which could fly south, and a sharp increase in the number of seed-eating birds in some areas. CILSS said preventive measures had already been taken to reduce the danger of such plagues, but in some cases there had been a lack of funding to implement them fully. CILSS also pointed to localised pockets of lower-than-average rainfall in northern Senegal and the Kanem region of western Chad, just to the north of Lake Chad, It also warned of localised damage to crops from flooding in other areas. The member states of CILSS are Cape Verde, Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Gambia, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Chad. The organisation's crop estimates are closely watched by the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP) and other organisations concerned about food security in the region.