Poverty growing despite increased assistance, says ICG

A new report from the Brussels-based think-tank, the International Crisis Group (ICG), says poverty continues to grow in Tajikistan despite a substantial increase in international aid following the US-led military campaign in neighbouring Afghanistan in 2001. "We think that there has been some progress in Tajikistan over the last couple of years, but for long-term development there is a real need to improve governance and tackle the corruption in a serious way," the ICG's Central Asia project director, David Lewis, told IRIN from the Tajik capital, Dushanbe, on Monday. The ICG maintained that the West had made serious commitments to the Central Asian states after 11 September, but aid had been largely uncoordinated, and few organisations had long-term commitments. Infant mortality rates are rising, and about 30 percent of children are chronically malnourished. "The economic situation is dire. The average monthly salary is less than US $7 per month, and unemployment is estimated to be over 30 per cent," the report said. More than a million Tajiks rely on food aid, with the state budget this year expected to be one-tenth of what it was in 1990 when Tajikistan was a Soviet republic. Lewis added that migration was becoming one of the primary issues between Central Asia and other countries of the former Soviet Union comprising the Commonwealth of Independent States. "Most Tajik migrants go to Russia without any real protection," he said. According to the ICG, although the mountainous republic of 6.2 million has made major advances in terms of security since the end of its civil war, and stability has improved significantly, widespread poverty is fuelling a major drug-trafficking business, and providing a potential breeding ground for Islamist militant groups. Tajikistan shares a long southern border with Afghanistan, and observers have linked many of its past problems to events across the border. Commenting on the report, the UN resident representative in Tajikistan, Matthew Kahane, told IRIN that the country had indeed been receiving much more international assistance over the past two years. "But the problems inherited from the Soviet days, the economic problems and the geographical isolation of the mountains cannot be overcome in a year or two," he maintained. He added that 95 percent of the country's 2002 consolidated appeal was being funded, compared to only 75 percent in 2001, and aid agencies were doing their best to utilise this opportunity. "There is a greater deal of coordination being done on an operational basis, week in and week out," he said, adding that the declining literacy and education rates were "a matter of very great concern". With more than 80 percent of the population living under poverty, Kahane said sustained measures such as the functioning of schools, improved health care, growth of individual farming and small enterprise development were needed to combat poverty. "This will be giving people the opportunity to go after their pursuits," he said. ICG's senior analyst, Kathleen Samuel, said if Tajikistan were to avert the fate of Afghanistan, its very real problems could not be ignored. "Cynical voices in the development community say things will only get worse. But there are plenty of people within Tajikistan's administration who do appreciate the need for different approaches. Given the right mixture of government policy and international assistance, a positive shift is feasible," she said.