Upcoming by-elections crucial for ZANU and MDC

Zimbabwe's ruling ZANU-PF is within sight of a two-thirds majority in parliament that would enable it to make constitutional amendments. This makes three upcoming by-elections all the more important for the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). ZANU-PF holds 95 of the 150 seats in parliament. The 150 seats include 30 that are appointed directly or indirectly by President Robert Mugabe - eight provincial governors, 12 non-constituency MPs and ten chiefs appointed by their peers and given final approval by Mugabe. According to Zimbabwe's parliamentary records, the MDC holds 54 seats. The ZANU-Ndonga party of the late Ndabaningi Sithole, veteran nationalist and Mugabe critic, has one seat. Five of the 150 seats are currently vacant. Two of these - the Mashonaland West governor's seat and a replacement for deceased chief Mukwananzi - will almost certainly be filled by ZANU-PF members, said Greg Linington, lecturer in constitutional law at the University of Zimbabwe. The others are the constituencies of Harare Central, following the resignation of MDC Member of Parliament (MP) Michael Auret due to ill health, and Makonde in the northwest of the country, vacant due to the recent death of Education Minister Swithun Mombeshora of ZANU-PF. Also up for grabs is Chiredzi South, in the northeast of the country, after the suspension of ZANU-PF MP Aaron Baloyi. It was recently reported that MDC MP Tafadzwa Musekiwa had fled to London to escape alleged intimidation and had resigned his Harare seat. But a parliamentary official as well as MDC spokesman Paul Themba Nyathi said they had not yet received official notification of this, so his Zengeza constituency is not considered vacant. According to the constitution, if the ruling party holds "two thirds of the full membership" of parliament, which is 100 of 150 seats, then it is entitled to make constitutional amendments, Linington said. ZANU-PF are therefore five seats short of the 100 seats required. Analyst Chris Maroleng of the Institute of Security Studies Africa said the issue of constitutional amendments becomes relevant in the context of recent reports, denied by the government, of the search for an exit strategy for Mugabe. "The constitution currently says that within 90 days of the president's death or retirement, there has to be a presidential election to appoint a successor," Maroleng explained. "But a constitutional amendment could allow Mugabe to appoint a successor ahead of his departure and bypass an election." The upcoming by-elections therefore become all the more critical, with the attending risk of political violence and intimidation. "During the presidential election the [ZANU-PF] strategy was to reduce the number of voters, as a high voter turnout benefited the MDC and low turnout benefited ZANU-PF," Maroleng said. Other influences include whether a constituency is urban or rural - where traditionally it is more difficult for the opposition to campaign. Most rural seats are held by ZANU-PF, while the MDC tends to be urban-based. Maroleng said that of the three by-elections, the Makonde seat was likely to be a "borderline" MDC/ZANU-PF seat as it had been a close contest in the last election, with reported incidents of violence. The Electoral Supervisory Commission has yet to set a date for the closely watched contests.