New report cautions of growing instability

A new report by a prominent international organisation working on conflict resolution, the International Crisis Group (ICG), has warned of increasing political instability in the Central Asian republic of Turkmenistan due to the "increasingly authoritarian and idiosyncratic policies" of its president, Saparmurat Niyazov. "In Turkmenistan the dictatorship has reached unprecedented levels, resembling North Korea, or Mao's China during the cultural revolution," ICG's Central Asia analyst, Filip Noubel, told IRIN from the southern Kyrgyz city of Osh on Wednesday. "There is absolutely not a single independent political party or free media outlet. The cult of [Niyazov's] personality equals brainwashing at national level, and the country is completely isolated from the rest of the world." Although a potentially rich country because of its tremendous oil and gas reserves and cotton production, poverty is increasing in the desert nation of five million, with sharply falling living standards. While officially the country has no problems, poverty, drug abuse, HIV/AIDS, TB and environmental degradation are all worsening, according to the ICG. As Niyazov has dubbed himself 'Turkmenbashi', or father of all Turkmens, he and a group of small advisers retain totalitarian control reminiscent of the Soviet era. According to the ICG, the education system has become little more than a way of indoctrinating children with the cult of Turkmenbashi, while the pro-government electoral system ensures that he regularly wins 99 per cent of the vote. Niyazov has ruled the country ever since its independence from the former Soviet Union in 1991. Following an attempt to assassinate the president on 25 November in the capital, Ashgabat - largely blamed on opposition groups living in exile - hundreds of opposition activists were arrested and some opposition figures were sentenced to life imprisonment in draconian, Stalinist-style show trials. The ICG maintained that Niyazov's continued rule was a serious threat to stability in Central Asia, and any improvement in the situation was unlikely, for so long as he retained power. "The failed assassination attempt is a clear sign that society is on the verge of explosion, because the only means of dialogue is actually shooting and then staging trials," Noubel said, adding that the powerful but disgruntled Turkmen intelligence service and the military could unite to push for a violent regime change, given their access to money and information. He added that the crisis in Turkmenistan was contributing to the already fragile situation in the region, because the country served as a major drug route between Afghanistan, Iran and Russia. Moreover, its sharply worsening relations with neighbouring Uzbekistan - the most powerful and densely populated Central Asian country, was adversely affecting regional stability. The Uzbek embassy in Ashgabat was raided last month as Turkmenistan accused its neighbour of supporting and even hiding Boris Shikhmuradov, a leading Turkmen opposition figure. A former foreign minister, Shikhmuradov was sentenced to life imprisonment in a brief summary trial earlier this month after being found guilty of having been the chief organiser of the assassination attempt. In a December statement posted on the opposition People's Democratic Movement of Turkmenistan website, Shikhmuradov appealed to international organisations and diplomatic missions in Asghabat to take note of Niyazov's despotism and extreme violations of human rights. "How many more human lives have to be sacrificed to a bloodthirsty dictator until the world community realises this true danger?" asked the statement. According to the ICG, despite the president's tight grip on power, the risk of instability and violence is growing. Its report identified five main sources of conflict that could accelerate Turkmenistan's disintegration: the underground political struggle within the country; rising discontent in the security services; serious economic problems; a weak and increasingly dysfunctional state, which provides opportunities for terrorists; social destruction, with a population increasingly sucked into drugs and crime; and competition between ethnic and clan groups. With no independent opposition, free press or non-state civil organisations, a democratic transition in the country appears far off. However, Noubel reiterated the need for international engagement with Ashgabat. "Just like in Bosnia and Kosovo, Turkmen society needs great assistance to recover from 12 years of harsh dictatorship and avoid a civil war scenario," he said. IRIN contacted the Turkmen Embassy in Islamabad, but they declined to comment on the report or its contents. Suggesting a solution to the crisis, Noubel maintained that isolation and sanctions would not work in Turkmenistan. "Conditioning economic cooperation in the energy sector and requesting structural reforms is the only practical way to achieve changes in the long term," he maintained.