Cholera, El Nino could worsen crisis

An on-going El Nino weather pattern and a cholera outbreak could worsen the humanitarian crisis in Southern Africa, aid agencies have warned. In its latest situation report on the humanitarian crisis in Southern Africa, the UN Regional Inter-Agency Coordination Support Office has warned that a "sub-optimal" harvest could be in the offing for 2003, due to the impact of an El Nino event which is associated with erratic rainfall. At the core of the crisis in the region is a serious food shortage, which affects some 14.4 million people. "Prolonged drought, erratic rainfall, the HIV/AIDS pandemic and questionable government policies" have all contributed to the crisis, the report said. Meanwhile, cholera was emerging as the latest health threat to those already facing severe hunger due to the food shortages, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) warned on Thursday. In the past month alone, 500 cases of cholera have been reported in Zimbabwe's Masvingo province, and so far 24 people have died. Other cases have been reported in neighbouring countries affected by drought, which has forced more and more people to drink polluted ground water, the IFRC said in a statement. "Usually cholera comes along when the rains have started. This year it has come rather earlier than that, and that is because of the food security situation. People are weak, they have limited access to food and they are using poor water sources. "The Red Cross is concerned that the situation is going to get worse rather than better as the season progresses," Ben Mountfield, the country manager of the Red Cross food operation in Zimbabwe, was quoted as saying. The UN Regional Inter-Agency Support Office also highlighted the cholera risk, noting that five of the six countries affected by food shortages have been hit by cholera outbreaks. "Where previous epidemics occurred every four to five years, cholera now befalls some countries every second year or annually. This is indicative of the disease becoming endemic in those countries," the office warned. In Malawi, during the last rainy season, more than 900 people died and over 32,000 were infected. Meanwhile, "normal to above-normal rainfall for October to December 2002, followed by normal to below normal rains for the following three months (January to March 2003)" are expected as a result of a "moderate" El Nino event, which has been underway since mid-2002, the office warned. As a result a "sub-optimal harvest of the staple crops (maize, sorghum and millet)" was predicted. Crop yield reductions of between 20 percent and 40 percent were possible for southern Zimbabwe, the country worst hit by the food shortages. Lesotho, eastern Botswana - which so far has been unaffected by food shortages - and already food insecure southern Mozambique could also see a similar downturn in output. It was forecast that crop yield reductions of between 10 percent and 20 percent could be experienced in northern Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, southern Zambia, Swaziland and parts of South Africa, another country that has so far escaped the food security crisis.