Northern disarmament deal uncertain

Despite an agreement reached on Monday between the Shi’ite Hezb-e Wahdat-e Eslami (Islamic Unity Party), the Jamiat-e Eslami (Islamic Association) and Jonbesh-e Melli-ye Eslami (Islamic National Resurgence, also known as the Islamic National Movement) to disarm their fighters in northern Afghanistan, local military commanders may prevent the restoration of stability in the volatile region. Only a cessation of hostilities could make possible the return of thousands of ethnic Pashtun families who fled the area after being subjected to intimidation and harassment following the fall of the Taliban late last year. Their plight worsens as winter approaches - many will have to spend the cold months in makeshift IDP camps in the south. "It is an agreement between the faction leaders to disarm the local commanders, but there is no agreement from the local commanders," Andres Fange, an official of the United Nations Assistance Mission to Afghanistan (UNAMA), told IRIN from the Afghan capital, Kabul, on Tuesday. "It is also suspected that there are strategic parties involved in the situation," he added. The agreement follows a visit by US Special Envoy for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad, who met the leader of Jamiat, Ostad Ata Mohammad, and that of Jonbesh, Rashid Dostum, in the northern Afghan city of Mazar-e Sharif to express concern over the fighting between their forces last week that left at least six people dead. The two commanders, who are nominally part of President Hamid Karzai’s fragile coalition government, have been jostling to control the region ever since the fall of the Taliban. Karzai has threatened to sack regional warlords if they abuse their powers. There have been several similar agreements between competing warlords in the past, but they were never fully honoured. "Pretty often the leaders agree, but the [local] commanders don’t listen to them," Fange explained. UNAMA is part of a security commission embracing all the political factions in the north, and is tasked with quelling conflicts and demilitarising Mazar-e Sharif. Fange hoped that the new agreement might produce better results, because there was pressure from both the central government in Kabul and the US through its special envoy Khalilzad. "It's pretty clear that as long as there is no functional state one can expect such things [ongoing conflict]to happen," he said. Security and stability in northern Afghanistan might encourage thousands of - mostly Pashtun - internally displaced people to go back to their villages. But such an eventuality hinges on the success of the disarmament agreements. "The problem here is local commanders, but such agreements are the only way forward," Fange maintained.