More violence expected as Ravalomanana declared victor

As Madagascar's High Constitutional Court (HCC) on Monday declared opposition candidate Marc Ravalomanana the outright winner of disputed presidential elections, analysts predicted an increase in the political violence that has shaken the Indian Ocean island. After a recount of the votes from the December poll, the court said Ravalomanana had won 51.46 percent of the ballots cast and incumbent President Didier Ratsiraka 35.9 percent. But Ratsiraka warned at the weekend that he would reject the HCC's verdict, alleging the court was biased and that the judges had been appointed illegally. The composition of the nine member HCC was changed by Ratsiraka shortly before the December election - an act declared illegal two weeks ago by the Supreme Court. The old HCC judges, of which six are alleged to be Ravalomanana supporters, were re-installed last week as part of the Dakar accord and charged with overseeing the recounting process. Ratsiraka's about turn threatens to undo the Dakar agreement, which called for both candidates to honour the vote recount, and further split an already divided country. "Ratsiraka's decision flies in the face of the deal, but more than that it is sure to increase the tension between the extremists in both political camps. We can expect to see more violent clashes, unless Ratsiraka and his supporters accept the decision of the court," Lucille Rabearabeorimanana, professor of history at the University of Madagascar, told IRIN on Monday. The initial result of the 16 December poll, confirmed by the HCC, said Ratsiraka had won 40.89 percent and Ravalomanana 46.21 percent - just short of the 50 percent needed for outright victory. The court then ordered that a second round run-off be held. But Ravalomanana said the result was rigged and in February declared himself president. More than 30 people have died in Madagascar's political violence. The Dakar accord, signed earlier this month, also called on Ratsiraka to ensure that all roadblocks around the capital Antananarivo were lifted. The blockade, which effectively cuts off the capital from the country's main port Tamatave, has starved the city of fuel and other essentials. On Monday, almost two weeks after the Organisation of African Unity brokered peace talks in Senegal, the roadblocks remained in place as the country braced itself for a renewed political standoff. "It's back to square one. It is as if nothing has happened and yet a lot has ... More people are going hungry and more people are losing their jobs," said Madeleine Ramaholimihaso, who headed a consortium of civil society organisations that supervised the country's disputed 16 December presidential poll. Meanwhile, the growing influence of the country's five provincial governors supporting Ratsiraka has come under severe criticism from local media. Last week, while Ratsiraka was abroad, the governors issued a communique refusing to dismantle roadblocks until Ravalomanana dissolved his shadow government. Editorials in two of Madagascar's leading dailies, L'Express and Midi Madagaskara, suggested that Ratsiraka had lost control of the governors. L'Express reported on Saturday that the governors threatened to form independent states should Ratsiraka be removed from power. News reports on Monday said that soon after the announcement of the results of the vote recount, the governor of northern Antsiranana said he planned to "declare independence" for his province. In another development, several African foreign ministers headed for Madagascar on Monday as part of a diplomatic initiative, AFP reported. The aim of the trip, backed by the international community, was to lay the basis for lasting reconciliation in Madagascar based on the Dakar accord, AFP said.